St. Louis @ Texas Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Ranking in the 78th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season, Alec Burleson demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a key skill for achieving a high batting average. Posting a .287 batting average this year, Alec Burleson is ranked in the 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Globe Life Field as the 2nd-worst park in MLB for LHB batting average. Globe Life Field has the 7th-deepest centerfield fences among all stadiums. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-driest conditions of all games on the slate at 37%. Batting from the same side that Patrick Corbin throws from, Brendan Donovan will have a tough matchup today. Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Brendan Donovan today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Globe Life Field as the 2nd-worst park in MLB for LHB batting average. Globe Life Field has the 7th-deepest centerfield fences among all stadiums. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-driest conditions of all games on the slate at 37%. This year, there has been a decline in Corey Seager's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.34 ft/sec last year to 24.42 ft/sec currently.

Alejandro Osuna is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Alejandro Osuna will have an edge today. Alejandro Osuna will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Alejandro Osuna has been hot lately, cruising to a .363 wOBA over the last 7 days.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Lars Nootbaar's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (21.7° in the last two weeks) is a significant increase over his 10.5° seasonal figure. Lars Nootbaar's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 43.2% to 49.3%. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Lars Nootbaar has had some very poor luck this year. His .337 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .362.

Jordan Walker has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 5.6% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last 14 days. Jordan Walker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 16.9% on the season to 33.3% in the past two weeks. Jordan Walker has been unlucky this year, putting up a .260 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .308 — a .048 gap.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage today. Kyle Higashioka has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .246 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .283 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Patrick Corbin throws from, Masyn Winn will have the upper hand in today's game. Masyn Winn's launch angle this season (19.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 13° angle last year. With a .351 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Masyn Winn grades out in the 80th percentile. By putting up a .277 batting average this year, Masyn Winn is ranked in the 76th percentile.

Victor Scott II has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wyatt Langford is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Wyatt Langford will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Wyatt Langford has made notable improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 13.7% seasonal rate to 37.5% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Wyatt Langford's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (19.2°) is significantly higher than his 11.5° angle last season.

Josh Smith is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Josh Smith will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Josh Smith will hold that advantage in today's matchup. This season, Josh Smith has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92.2 mph compared to last year's 90 mph mark. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.4°, Josh Smith has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 34.9° figure in the past 14 days.

Batting from the opposite that Patrick Corbin throws from, Nolan Arenado will have an edge in today's game. Batters such as Nolan Arenado with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Patrick Corbin who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 15.1% on the season to 28.6% in the last 14 days. As it relates to plate discipline, Nolan Arenado's talent is quite impressive, sporting a 1.4 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 88th percentile.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Sam Haggerty will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Sam Haggerty's speed has gotten better this season. His 27.78 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.29 ft/sec now.

Batting from the opposite that Patrick Corbin throws from, Pedro Pages will have an advantage in today's game.

Jonah Heim is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jonah Heim will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Adolis Garcia will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Adolis Garcia's launch angle this season (21.6°) is a significant increase over his 14.8° figure last year. Adolis Garcia's launch angle of late (30.3° in the past two weeks) is considerably higher than his 21.6° seasonal mark. Adolis Garcia has been unlucky this year, putting up a .271 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .052 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jake Burger has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 11% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past 14 days. Despite posting a .274 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Burger has had bad variance on his side given the .065 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .339.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Marcus Semien will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.310) may lead us to conclude that Marcus Semien has had bad variance on his side this year with his .226 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Ivan Herrera will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Patrick Corbin today. The Barrel% of Ivan Herrera has significantly improved, with an increase from 9% last year to 18.9% this year. Compared to last season, Ivan Herrera has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 46.6% to 64.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Patrick Corbin throws from, Willson Contreras will have an edge in today's matchup. Willson Contreras has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last season's 95.1-mph EV. Willson Contreras has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 104.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 98.3-mph.

Josh Jung's BABIP ability is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Josh Jung will hold that advantage in today's game. Josh Jung's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 16.8% to 20.9%. In notching a .351 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Josh Jung grades out in the 80th percentile.