Colorado @ New York picks
Citi Field
COL vs NYM Picks
MLB Picks
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Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
No bet against the Rockies is a bad bet, and while the run line may be steep, the Mets should run away with this game. They get to face Antonio Senzatela, who is 1-9 with a 6.50 ERA. That's bad. Kodai Senga, on the other hand, is 5-3, with a 1.46 ERA. That's good. Expect another rout at Citi Field.
Total RBIs

Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Juan Soto projects as the 4th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the league.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate at 78%.. Juan Soto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Antonio Senzatela today.
Total RBIs

Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run ability, Hunter Goodman ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the league.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate at 78%.. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Mickey Moniak o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-115)
Projection 1.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the league.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate at 78%.. Mickey Moniak will have the handedness advantage against Kodai Senga today.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mickey Moniak stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Michael Toglia o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-115)
Projection 1.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the league.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate at 78%.. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team today.. Over the last two weeks, Michael Toglia's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.9%.
Total Bases

Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Juan Soto projects as the 4th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the league.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the most humid conditions on the slate at 79%.. Juan Soto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Antonio Senzatela today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Brenton Doyle o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 80th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the most humid conditions on the slate at 78%.. Brenton Doyle hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences today.. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.. Brenton Doyle's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 13.6% on the season to 50% in the last two weeks' worth of games.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Ryan McMahon o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-155)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run talent, Ryan McMahon ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan McMahon is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate at 78%.. Ryan McMahon will hold the platoon advantage over Kodai Senga in today's matchup.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan McMahon can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Hunter Goodman o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+130)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run ability, Hunter Goodman ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the league.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the most humid conditions on the slate at 78%.. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
JY
Jared Young u1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-120)
Projection 1.2 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Jared Young is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.. Citi Field ranks as the #30 ballpark in baseball for left-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which often leads to worse offense.. The Colorado Rockies infield defense projects as the 3rd-best among all the teams playing today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Kyle Farmer o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-155)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Citi Field has the shallowest CF dimensions in the league.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate at 78%.. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team today.. Kyle Farmer has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 5.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past two weeks.. Kyle Farmer's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, rising from 15.3% on the season to 33.3% in the past two weeks.