San Francisco @ Miami picks

Kyle Harrison is making his second start of the season and only threw 57 pitches in his last start, going 12 outs. He projects for just 74 today, so his volume Unders are showing well,l including his Under 4.5 hits allowed. Harrison is worse than a K/inning pitcher in the big leagues and might need 5+ frames to get this Over. He shouldn't see the order a third time, and the Miami Marlins aren’t as bad at striking out as one would assume. Miami ranks 17th in K% at 17% this season and is even better vs. lefties, ranking 24th. Harrison might be heading back to the bullpen after this short start, and getting deep with 5+ Ks on 75 or fewer pitches is the angle here. 

As it relates to his home run ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in LoanDepot Park.. Compared to his seasonal average of 23°, Willy Adames has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 34° figure over the past two weeks.. Last year, Willy Adames had an average launch angle of 22.2° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 28.3°.. Despite posting a .277 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willy Adames has experienced some negative variance given the .054 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

Matt Chapman projects as the 9th-best home run batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Matt Chapman has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 94-mph mark.. Matt Chapman's launch angle this year (20.6°) is significantly higher than his 16.1° mark last season.

Eric Wagaman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Eric Wagaman will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Harrison in today's game.. Eric Wagaman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Eric Wagaman will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Eric Wagaman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 96.4-mph in the past two weeks.

The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in LoanDepot Park.. Casey Schmitt has compiled a .329 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 82nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. With a 26.900 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Casey Schmitt is positioned in the 91st percentile for power.. Since the start of last season, Casey Schmitt's flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to study power) is in the 86th percentile at 94.9 mph.. Casey Schmitt has hit 26.5 long-balls per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 89th percentile for power.

Matt Chapman projects as the 9th-best home run batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Matt Chapman has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 94-mph mark.. Matt Chapman's launch angle this year (20.6°) is significantly higher than his 16.1° mark last season.

Matt Chapman projects as the 9th-best home run batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Matt Chapman has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 94-mph mark.. Matt Chapman's launch angle this year (20.6°) is significantly higher than his 16.1° mark last season.

As it relates to his home run ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in LoanDepot Park.. Compared to his seasonal average of 23°, Willy Adames has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 34° figure over the past two weeks.. Last year, Willy Adames had an average launch angle of 22.2° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 28.3°.. Despite posting a .277 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willy Adames has experienced some negative variance given the .054 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

As it relates to his home run ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in LoanDepot Park.. Compared to his seasonal average of 23°, Willy Adames has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 34° figure over the past two weeks.. Last year, Willy Adames had an average launch angle of 22.2° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 28.3°.. Despite posting a .277 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willy Adames has experienced some negative variance given the .054 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.