Colorado @ Chicago Picks & Props

Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast projects the coldest temperature of all games on the slate at 54°. Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Tucker generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Gordon. From last season to this one, Kyle Tucker's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 44.9% to 38.8%. This year, the hardest ball Kyle Tucker has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 108.1 mph (an advanced stat to evaluate power), ranking in the 24th percentile.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Mickey Moniak has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.4-mph average to last season's 90.5-mph EV. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.242) suggests that Mickey Moniak has had some very poor luck this year with his .217 actual batting average.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Aaron Schunk will have the upper hand in today's game.

Jordan Beck's BABIP talent is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jordan Beck is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game. The 5th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Jordan Beck will have an advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Tyler Freeman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The 5th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Tyler Freeman will have an advantage in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The 5th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Dansby Swanson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 15.3% to 19.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Shaw in the 77th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Matt Shaw will hold that advantage today. Ranking in the 90th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.9 ft/sec this year, Matt Shaw is very quick.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The 5th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Seiya Suzuki will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The 5th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Hunter Goodman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's matchup. Hunter Goodman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 33.6% to 40.5%.

Kyle Farmer is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. The 5th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Kyle Farmer will have an edge today.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Ryan McMahon has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Ryan McMahon's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 15.1% to 18.3%. This year, Ryan McMahon's 13.5% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 83rd percentile among his peers. Ryan McMahon's 93.9-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in the game this year: 94th percentile.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Michael Toglia will get to bat from his good side against Matthew Boyd in today's matchup. Michael Toglia pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Michael Toglia's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 43.1% to 48.5%.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Tanner Gordon today. Ian Happ has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Brenton Doyle is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. The 5th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Brenton Doyle will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Gordon throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an edge in today's matchup. Pete Crow-Armstrong is likely to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.

Carson Kelly is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The 5th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage today. Carson Kelly has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 6.6% rate last year to 15% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Ezequiel Tovar is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The 5th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Ezequiel Tovar will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nico Hoerner will hold that advantage in today's game. Posting a .293 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Nico Hoerner grades out in the 95th percentile. When it comes to plate discipline, Nico Hoerner's skill is quite strong, posting a 1.39 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Gordon throws from, Michael Busch will have an edge in today's game. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Busch has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Michael Busch will hold that advantage today.