Los Angeles @ New York picks

The New York Mets have a sizable pitching advantage for Sunday Night Baseball with the Los Angeles Dodgers sending Landon Knack to the hill. Knack has struggled to the tune of a 6.61 ERA and 1.65 WHIP across his four starts this season, and the Mets sport a 10th-ranked wRC+ against righties. I’m also expecting better times coming for the lineup with their 20th-ranked .284 BABIP set to see a jump up moving forward. New York sends righty Kodai Senga to the bump, and he’s been dealing with a 1.43 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts. I also value Kenga’s 46.6% ground-ball rate alongside his 5.2 barrel percentage.

Freddie Freeman hasn’t enjoyed this series very much, going hitless in seven ABs and getting plunked on Saturday. But over half his appearances have come against left-handed pitchers. His matchup with Senga gives him a chance to get back on track. Senga’s splits are vastly different when facing lefties, with a WHIP nearly twice as high as when he has a same-side advantage. And Freeman has posted an outstanding .367/.441/.679 split against RHP in 2025. 

Pete Alonso hasn’t notched a single XBH in his last six games. In fact, has just five singles in that time, covering a span of 23 ABs. He’s prime to rebound, and a matchup with Landon Knack is a terrific spot to do so. Alonso is hitting .301 and slugging .541 this season against RHP, and he ranks in the 97th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velo, hard-hit rate, and bat speed.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best batter in the league.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. Juan Soto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Landon Knack in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball bats like Juan Soto generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Landon Knack.

As it relates to his BABIP skill, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. Out of all the teams playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets.. Using Statcast metrics, Teoscar Hernandez is in the 83rd percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .348.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. Batting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Shohei Ohtani stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Andy Pages ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. Out of all the teams playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets.. Andy Pages's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 17.1% to 21.5%.. Notching 3 HRs over the past 14 days, Andy Pages has been on fire lately.

As it relates to his home run talent, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst outfield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Francisco Alvarez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.4-mph average to last season's 88.7-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 88th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Mark Vientos is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst outfield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Mark Vientos will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Brett Baty will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Landon Knack in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Brett Baty are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Landon Knack.. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst outfield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Brett Baty will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 76th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Batting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Michael Conforto will have an advantage in today's game.. Michael Conforto will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.. Michael Conforto has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. Batting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Shohei Ohtani stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best batter in the league.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. Juan Soto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Landon Knack in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball bats like Juan Soto generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Landon Knack.