Toronto @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

As it relates to his batting average skill, Chandler Simpson is projected as the 19th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitters such as Chandler Simpson with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Eric Lauer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Chandler Simpson will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 8th-worst park in the majors for righty batting average. Drew Rasmussen will hold the platoon advantage over Bo Bichette in today's matchup. Bo Bichette will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Over the last week, Bo Bichette's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 8th-worst park in the majors for righty batting average. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. Over the last week, Yandy Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%. Yandy Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, going from 10.3% on the season to 0% over the last week. Yandy Diaz has recorded a .254 BABIP this year, placing in the 18th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 8th-worst park in the majors for righty batting average. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 76th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's game. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. Junior Caminero has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 9.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Junior Caminero's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (4.2°) is quite a bit lower than his 9.3° figure last year.

Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Daulton Varsho will have an advantage in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Daulton Varsho with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 8th-worst park in the majors for righty batting average. Hitting from the same side that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a tough challenge in today's game. Today, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (83rd percentile). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In the last week's worth of games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.4% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Nathan Lukes will have an edge today. Nathan Lukes has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 89.4-mph average in the last week to his seasonal mark of 86.8-mph. Posting a .284 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Nathan Lukes grades out in the 93rd percentile.

The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Eric Lauer throws from, Curtis Mead will have an advantage in today's matchup. Curtis Mead has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Curtis Mead will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.251) suggests that Curtis Mead has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .226 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Jonatan Clase will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Drew Rasmussen in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Alejandro Kirk has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Alejandro Kirk's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.8% up to 25%.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Christopher Morel will hold the platoon advantage over Eric Lauer in today's game. Christopher Morel will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, George Springer ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). George Springer has made significant gains with his Barrel%, improving his 9.3% rate last year to 18.1% this year. George Springer has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.8-mph average to last season's 93.2-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ernie Clement's launch angle this year (21°) is considerably higher than his 16.2° angle last year. Ernie Clement has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .271 mark is a good deal lower than his .305 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jose Caballero will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eric Lauer today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jose Caballero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.4-mph over the course of the season to 95.2-mph lately. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 43.9% to 54.7%.

Danny Jansen is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Danny Jansen will have the handedness advantage against Eric Lauer in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Danny Jansen has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last season's 90.5-mph figure.

The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Eric Lauer today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Taylor Walls has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .233 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .294 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Addison Barger will have the upper hand in today's game. Addison Barger has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season's 88.1-mph figure. Addison Barger has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 101.9-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal figure of 96.2-mph. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.248) may lead us to conclude that Addison Barger has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .218 actual batting average.

Anthony Santander has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.