Atlanta @ Boston picks
Fenway Park
ATL vs BOS Picks
MLB Picks
Total Bases


Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
The Boston Red Sox slugger has turned it on since the calendar ticked over to May, with a .411/.507/.625 split since the start of the month. And he’s been particularly dangerous at Fenway Park, where he’s hit .329 with 26 hits — 11 for extra bases — in 79 ABs. He’s poised to take advantage of a matchup with Spencer Schwellenbach, who has regressed heavily towards the mean after a solid start to the season. He’s allowed six home runs through nine starts, all coming against left-handed hitters, and has a 4.86 ERA on the road compared to a 2.63 mark at Truist Park.
Total RBIs

Matt Olson o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Olson as the majors's 15th-best home run batter.. Matt Olson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The 3rd-shallowest right field dimensions in the majors are found in Fenway Park.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total RBIs

Austin Riley o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Austin Riley as the league's 16th-best home run batter.. Austin Riley is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The shallowest LF fences in the majors are found in Fenway Park.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total RBIs

Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Trevor Story's BABIP talent is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trevor Story is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
Total RBIs

Kristian Campbell o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell as the 18th-best batter in the game when assessing his BABIP skill.. Kristian Campbell has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The shallowest LF fences in the majors are found in Fenway Park.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total RBIs

Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 20th-best batter in MLB.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
Total RBIs

Alex Bregman o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
Total RBIs

Marcell Ozuna o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run talent, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
Total Bases

Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 20th-best batter in MLB.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
Outs Recorded

Spencer Schwellenbach u17.5 Outs Recorded (+115)
Projection 16.9 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for batting average.. The shallowest LF fences in the majors are found in Fenway Park.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.. Considering that flyball hitters have a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Spencer Schwellenbach and his 45.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in this outing squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Rafael Devers o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-150)
Projection 2.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 20th-best batter in MLB.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.