Chicago @ Chicago picks

White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon has allowed at least six hits in each of his last four starts, with the Astros and Royals spraying nine hits each across six innings. He limited the damage to just two runs in each of those outings, but he may not be as lucky against the Cubs. Of the Cubs' 26 wins this season, 20 of them have been by at least two runs. You may consider even taking the -2.5 run line, given the fact that the Cubs have covered that in 18 of 26 victories.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. In MLB, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest.. The Chicago White Sox infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams today.. Dansby Swanson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.. In the last 14 days, Dansby Swanson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.6-mph over the course of the season to 99.7-mph in recent games.

The Chicago White Sox have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games. Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Colin Rea (35.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 3 GB hitters in Chicago's projected offense.. Colin Rea's four-seam fastball utilization has jumped by 35.4% from last year to this one (19.9% to 55.3%) .. Colin Rea's 2202-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 18th percentile among all SPs.. Colin Rea has been lucky this year, putting up a 2.48 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.77 — a 2.29 discrepancy.