Houston @ Texas picks

This is a picture-perfect matchup for both arms, who will induce plenty of friendly contact given the ground-ball/fly-ball splits and the low strikeout rates for both sides, and with neither offense doing all that much at the dish of late, we’re going to have to target the total here through five innings.

Mahle has pitched to a 1.47 ERA with an OBA of .179 through nine starts. He is in the top 20th percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, and should be able to contain an Astros lineup that sits in the Bottom 3 in both metrics. The 'Stros have been brutal on the road where they plate just 3.65 runs per game with an OPS of .638. Mahle hasn't surrendered more than 2.5 earned runs in any of his nine starts this year and has allowed fewer than 1.5 in seven of those outings. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Jake Burger as Major League Baseball's 20th-best home run hitter.. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage in today's game.. Jake Burger has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 99.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.6-mph mark.. Jake Burger has been unlucky this year, notching a .276 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .065 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Josh Jung will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. In the last week, Josh Jung's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.9-mph over the course of the season to 101.2-mph in recent games.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Joc Pederson ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Joc Pederson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ronel Blanco today.. Joc Pederson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. Despite posting a .219 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Joc Pederson has had bad variance on his side given the .124 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .343.

Wyatt Langford projects as the 20th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Wyatt Langford will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Wyatt Langford has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 12.1% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the past 7 days.

It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.. It is anticipated that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Nic Lentz) behind the plate in today's game.. Projected catcher Yainer Diaz projects as a weak pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ronel Blanco today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Jake Burger as Major League Baseball's 20th-best home run hitter.. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage in today's game.. Jake Burger has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 99.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.6-mph mark.. Jake Burger has been unlucky this year, notching a .276 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .065 deviation.

Wyatt Langford projects as the 20th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Wyatt Langford will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Wyatt Langford has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 12.1% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Josh Jung will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. In the last week, Josh Jung's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.9-mph over the course of the season to 101.2-mph in recent games.

In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Evan Carter will have the handedness advantage against Ronel Blanco today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Evan Carter will hold that advantage in today's game.. Evan Carter has been hot lately, compiling a a 27.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) in the last week.. Evan Carter has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs in recent games, angling balls between 23° and 34° 27.3% of the time in the last 7 days.

In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage in today's game.. Checking in at the 95th percentile for power, Kyle Higashioka has averaged 31.5 long-balls per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.