The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers have both struggled somewhat to hit the ball in recent weeks, but the home team has been able to overcome those issues with some solid pitching over that span.
After Texas saw its six-game winning streak come to an end on Friday, my Astros vs. Rangers predictions will cover why its pitching matchup will once again be a friendly one here – and why things may remain difficult at the dish.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Saturday, May 17.
Astros vs Rangers prediction
My Astros vs Rangers best bet: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Despite the loss of Yordan Alvarez to injury, the Houston Astros remain a potent bunch at the plate. They’ve posted a 119 wRC+ over the last two weeks of play, leaning on a heavy contact approach which has seen them strike out in just 19.4% of plate appearances and hit .273 along the way.
Their power isn’t overly menacing with just a .142 ISO to their name, but they’ve walked at an 8.8% clip to keep a steady flow of runners on base.
That makes for an intriguing matchup with Texas Rangers starter Tyler Mahle, who’s gotten the majority of his outs on contact with a strikeout rate that is just outside the bottom third of the league.
He’s walked 8.5% batters to boot – a merely average clip – but he hasn’t given up too much damage with low hard-hit and barrel rates, which have combined to bring him well under the league average with a .370 Expected Slugging Percentage.
This is a pitcher who’s kept the ball on the ground at a solid 45.6% clip, and that will be a massive factor on Saturday with Houston sitting ninth in OPS to fly-ball pitchers and a stunning 25th against ground-ballers.
While the matchup for Houston looks tough to overcome, starter Ronel Blanco has an equally positive outlook here as a fly-ball arm. Texas sits 12 spots higher in OPS to ground-ballers than the reverse split, and that’s due to its tendency to aim for power over contact with a .154 ISO in the last 14 days and just a .238 average.
Texas is looking just as strong in the discipline ranks as Houston with a sub-20% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate, and while that seems to take some of the wind out of Blanco’s sails as a pitcher who’s quickly building towards an upper-echelon strikeout rate, its inability to successfully hit for power should aid the right-hander.
This is a picture-perfect matchup for both arms, who will induce plenty of friendly contact given the ground-ball/fly-ball splits and the low strikeout rates for both sides, and with neither offense doing all that much at the dish of late we’re going to have to target the total here through five innings.
Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
F5 Under 4.5
Ronel Blanco Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Wyatt Langford 2+ Total Bases
We noted above how Blanco’s strikeout rate continues to climb, but after eclipsing five punchouts in three straight starts, I think he’s due to cool off a bit here. Two of those outings happened to come against the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, who rank in the top three of the league in strikeouts in the last two weeks.
This will be a much different kind of matchup here with Texas pushing towards the top five in fewest strikeouts per plate appearance over that same span.
I expect a lot of contact out of Texas here, a team that has swung the bat plenty, and one man who should do some damage by putting the ball in play is Wyatt Langford. The budding star saw his four-game hitting streak come to an end in this series, but he still has great splits against right-handers and leads this team by a large margin in total bases against fly-ball pitchers.
He’s hitting .317 and slugging .698 in the split, giving me plenty of confidence he can get off the schneid here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Rangers odds
Astros vs Rangers live odds
Astros vs Rangers opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston (+110) | Texas (-130)
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-194) | Texas -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Astros vs Rangers trend
The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.50 Units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers.
How to watch Astros vs Rangers and game info
| Location | Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas |
| Date | Saturday, 5-17-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, RSN |
| Astros starting pitcher | Ronel Blanco (3-3, 4.04 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Tyler Mahle (4-1, 1.47 ERA) |
Astros vs Rangers latest injuries
Astros vs Rangers weather
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