Atlanta @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to less offense. Hitting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Austin Riley will have a disadvantage in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Austin Riley will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. In terms of his batting average, Austin Riley has experienced some positive variance this year. His .286 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .265.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to less offense. Hitting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Marcell Ozuna has a tough challenge in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Marcell Ozuna will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Marcell Ozuna's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, falling from 10.7% on the season to 2.9% over the last two weeks.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to less offense. The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team in action today. Jarren Duran has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 6.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week. Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 90.6-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 82.1-mph in the past week's worth of games. Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (4.8°) is considerably worse than his 8.4° mark last season.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. The #6 field in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage over Grant Holmes in today's game.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to less offense. Batting from the same side that Grant Holmes throws from, Alex Bregman will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team in action today. Alex Bregman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, decreasing from 18.7% on the season to 5.6% over the last week. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.235) may lead us to conclude that Alex Bregman has experienced some positive variance this year with his .314 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in the league for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Nick Allen has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Nick Allen generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.

The #6 field in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Nick Sogard pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Nick Sogard will hold that advantage in today's game. Nick Sogard has been lifting the ball well in recent games, putting up a 23.4° launch angle in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. The #6 field in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Alex Verdugo will hold the platoon advantage over Lucas Giolito today.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Kristian Campbell is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kristian Campbell is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in the league for righty batting average. In MLB, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The #6 field in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters.

Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The #6 field in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Drake Baldwin will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in the league for righty batting average. In MLB, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Connor Wong has compiled a .331 BABIP since the start of last season, placing in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. The #6 field in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Grant Holmes in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in the league for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Carlos Narvaez has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Sean Murphy is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in the league for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Sean Murphy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in the league for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best field in the league for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. The #6 field in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Michael Harris II will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's game. Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The #6 field in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Abraham Toro will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The #6 field in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Ozzie Albies has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 91.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 89.2-mph. There has been a significant improvement in Ozzie Albies's launch angle from last season's 18.2° to 21.6° this year.