Houston @ Texas picks

Jacob deGrom has come back and hasn't missed a beat, pitching to a 3-1 record with a 2.72 ERA. Opposing him is Hunter Brown, who is 6-1 with a 1.48 ERA. Where will the runs come from in this game? I expect the pitching to win out and for this game to stay Under the number. 

The Texas Rangers outfielder has six long balls to his name this season and went deep on Wednesday in the series finale against the Colorado Rockies. Tonight, Garcia will face Houston Astros stud Hunter Brown. Despite Brown's recent dominance, Garcia has had a lot of success against him. He’s 5-for-15 lifetime with a pair of home runs, and the right-handed power hitter also has 13 bombs in 60 games versus Houston.

Hunter Brown has emerged as the Houston Astros ace in 2025. He’s been carving up virtually every opponent, going 6-1 in eight starts with an outstanding 1.48 ERA. The righty has also struck out 58 in 48.2 innings of work. He comes up against a Rangers offense that is 26th in runs scored, 23rd in average, and strikes out an average of 7.7 times per contest. Surprisingly, this current Texas Rangers lineup is hitting just over .300 versus Brown, and he only has 15 strikeouts in 90 at-bats. Regardless, I believe in his hot hand. He’ll benefit from the Rangers’ struggles and miss his fair share of bats this evening on the road.

Hunter Brown has a 1.48 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP through eight starts. He has an xERA of 2.85 and sits in the top 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and strikeout rate. Today, Brown faces Texas who is 24th in the majors in OPS (.669) and 26th in runs per game (3.50). The Rangers will also be missing their top hitter in Corey Seager.

Mark Ripperger projects as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be umping in this game.. Yainer Diaz, the Astros's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Hunter Brown in today's matchup.. Hunter Brown has utilized his cut-fastball 11.7% less often this year (5.2%) than he did last season (16.9%).

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Wyatt Langford will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Joc Pederson ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Joc Pederson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Joc Pederson will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage in today's game.. Grading out in the 92nd percentile for power, Jake Burger has hit 28.9 HRs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 91st percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. The Texas Rangers infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage in today's game.. Grading out in the 92nd percentile for power, Jake Burger has hit 28.9 HRs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Evan Carter will have an advantage today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Evan Carter will hold that advantage today.

Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Jonah Heim will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Joc Pederson ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Joc Pederson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Joc Pederson will have an edge today.

Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Extreme flyball batters like Victor Caratini generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jacob deGrom.. The Texas Rangers infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team on the slate today.. Last season, Victor Caratini had an average launch angle of 7.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 14.7°.