Kansas City @ Houston Picks & Props

Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest in the league. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst venue in MLB for righty base hits. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to less offense. Typically, bats like Jeremy Pena who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Kris Bubic. Jeremy Pena is in the 14th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (10.7% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst venue in MLB for righty base hits. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to less offense. Today, Bobby Witt Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.2% rate (86th percentile). Bobby Witt Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.

Zachary Dezenzo's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Kris Bubic throws from, Zachary Dezenzo will have an advantage in today's game. Among every team playing today, the 13th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.

The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Vinnie Pasquantino has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.7-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.4-mph EV. There has been a significant improvement in Vinnie Pasquantino's launch angle from last year's 14.4° to 18.3° this year. Vinnie Pasquantino's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 39.8% on the season to 63.2% in the last week's worth of games. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Vinnie Pasquantino's true offensive talent to be a .328, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .055 gap between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Among every team playing today, the 13th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage today. Victor Caratini's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 15.4% to 22.5%. Victor Caratini's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 22.5% on the season to 33.3% over the last 14 days.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Kris Bubic throws from, Isaac Paredes will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.8% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Isaac Paredes with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kris Bubic who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 75th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Jake Meyers will hold the platoon advantage over Kris Bubic today. Among every team playing today, the 13th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Waters in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Drew Waters pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Hitting from the opposite that Kris Bubic throws from, Yainer Diaz will have an advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Jonathan India will have an edge in today's game. Jonathan India pulls many of his flyballs (33.2% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Kris Bubic throws from, Jose Altuve will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Rodgers in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Brendan Rodgers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kris Bubic today. Among every team playing today, the 13th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals. Brendan Rodgers will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 78th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Salvador Perez is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Salvador Perez will have the upper hand in today's game. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Freddy Fermin will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez today. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.4°, Freddy Fermin has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 31.6° mark in the past 7 days.

The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Hunter Renfroe will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Hunter Renfroe has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.6-mph average to last year's 92.1-mph figure. Despite posting a .199 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Hunter Renfroe has had bad variance on his side given the .094 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .293.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Maikel Garcia is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Maikel Garcia will have the upper hand in today's game. Maikel Garcia has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last season's 90.4-mph figure.

Mark Canha has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Mark Canha will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game. Mark Canha's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 41.4% to 60%.

The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Kris Bubic throws from, Chas McCormick will have an advantage in today's game. Among every team playing today, the 13th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.277) provides evidence that Chas McCormick has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .260 actual wOBA.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Hitting from the opposite that Kris Bubic throws from, Christian Walker will have an advantage in today's game. Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 13th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.

Yordan Alvarez has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.