New York @ Seattle picks

The Seattle Mariners are a great opponent for a pitcher like Max Fried. They rank third in whiff rate, bottom ten in chase contact, and top ten in first-pitch swing rate. Fried thrives on painting the edges, and no team he's faced this season has a whiff rate in the top ten—until now. The Mariners also struggle against offspeed pitches, with up to six lineup regulars posting above-average whiff rates against the sweeper and curve. That’s the two lone pitches with whiff rates above 30% for Fried. We love that already. Add in Seattle’s 7% spike in strikeout rate against southpaws, and this prop becomes even more enticing. I'm happily betting Fried's strikeout prop up to -160, as his efficiency, the Mariners' swing-happy approach, and the pitcher-friendly environment make this a high-value play.

This is a bet based heavily on that +170 price tag. Bryan Woo projects for 17.4 outs Tuesday night at home vs. the New York Yankees. He is a good pitcher but not a guy who touches triple-digit pitch counts in back-to-back starts. THE BAT is projecting 91 total pitches with a season average of 90 pitches. Woo is perfect for this Over on the season but his list of opponents is littered with Bottom-15 offenses. The chances of getting to 18 outs in eight straight games with a pitch count of 90 are very low. Will this win 50% of the time? Likely not. Is this beating the 37% implied for the +170 price? Yes. I will take almost every Under 17.5 at +160 or better, especially vs. the Yankees. 

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jorge Polanco is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. The switch-hitting Jorge Polanco will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Max Fried.. Jorge Polanco pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 8th-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Cal Raleigh will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Max Fried in today's matchup.. Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Julio Rodriguez will have an edge today.

When assessing his home run ability, Ben Rice ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Ben Rice will hold the platoon advantage over Bryan Woo in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Woo has a large platoon split.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ben Rice can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Trent Grisham projects as the 18th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Given Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Trent Grisham will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.

The #1 stadium in the league for suppressing offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. This matchup is expected to have the 7th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Trent Grisham will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. In terms of his home runs, Trent Grisham has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His 35.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 26.5.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jorge Polanco is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. The switch-hitting Jorge Polanco will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Max Fried.. Jorge Polanco pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Mitch Garver is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Mitch Garver will have an edge in today's matchup.. Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Mitch Garver generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Leody Taveras has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Out of every team playing today, the 10th-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Leody Taveras will hold that advantage today.. Leody Taveras's launch angle this year (24.9°) is quite a bit better than his 14.1° figure last season.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 8th-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Cal Raleigh will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Max Fried in today's matchup.. Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.