Tampa Bay @ Toronto Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 4th-worst park in the majors for righty BABIP. Shane Baz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bo Bichette today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

The #4 venue in the majors for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Extreme flyball hitters like Chandler Simpson tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Berrios. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Chandler Simpson in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Chandler Simpson's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 81.8 mph to 77.8 mph. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, falling from 5.3% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Jonathan Aranda will have the handedness advantage against Jose Berrios in today's game.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Tyler Heineman will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Extreme groundball hitters like Danny Jansen generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Berrios. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.7°, Danny Jansen has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 25.3° angle in the past 7 days. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 16.4% to 21.1%.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Last season, Jose Caballero had an average launch angle of 17° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 25.3°.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's game. Brandon Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. The switch-hitting Jonatan Clase will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Shane Baz. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jonatan Clase will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Junior Caminero hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Nathan Lukes will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Baz in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Nathan Lukes tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Baz.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, George Springer ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and George Springer will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Over the past week, Yandy Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9% up to 21.4%. Yandy Diaz has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.8-mph EV. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.273) provides evidence that Yandy Diaz has experienced some negative variance this year with his .238 actual batting average.

Daulton Varsho is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Daulton Varsho will have the handedness advantage against Shane Baz in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Daulton Varsho will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Ernie Clement will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Ernie Clement has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 92-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 88.7-mph.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage in today's game. Anthony Santander has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.7-mph mark.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Addison Barger will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Addison Barger will hold that advantage in today's game. Addison Barger has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 96.1-mph average to last year's 88.1-mph mark.

The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Taylor Walls hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Compared to his seasonal average of 13°, Taylor Walls has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 31.8° figure in the past 7 days. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.295) may lead us to conclude that Taylor Walls has suffered from bad luck this year with his .255 actual wOBA.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Travis Jankowski will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios in today's game. Travis Jankowski has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 86.4-mph EV. Travis Jankowski's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, going from 54.2% on the season to 100% over the last 7 days.

Kameron Misner is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense. Kameron Misner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios in today's matchup. Kameron Misner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.