Tampa Bay @ Toronto picks

The Jays return home with a bit of momentum after sweeping the Mariners and now get to face Shane Baz, who has an ERA approaching five. A little momentum goes a long way, and with Berrios pitching well, I'll take the Jays at home. 

Guerrero is 4-for-8 in his career vs. Rays starter Shane Baz, good for a .318 xBA. Baz is also in a bit of a slump entering this game, surrendering 13 runs on 17 hits in losses to the Philadelphia Phillies and the Kansas City Royals. Guerrero is also locked in right now. Not only is he hitting .314 with a .851 OPS over his last 13 games, but he's also in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed. Basically, he’s hitting the ball hard and often. So, let’s take him to go Over 1.5 total bases at solid plus money tonight.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Rogers Centre projects as the #2 stadium in baseball for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Over the past week, Yandy Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9% up to 21.4%.. Yandy Diaz has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.8-mph EV.

As it relates to his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Rogers Centre projects as the #2 stadium in baseball for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Junior Caminero hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Rogers Centre projects as the #2 stadium in baseball for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 1st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. The league's 8th-highest fences can be found at Rogers Centre.. The switch-hitting Anthony Santander will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side (0) today against Shane Baz. Extreme groundball batters like Anthony Santander are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Rogers Centre.. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Extreme groundball hitters like Danny Jansen generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Berrios.. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.7°, Danny Jansen has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 25.3° angle in the past 7 days.

As it relates to his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Rogers Centre projects as the #2 stadium in baseball for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's game.