Pittsburgh @ New York picks

The Mets have a productive lineup but they get off to slow starts. They are just 25th in the majors in run first inning percentage (23.8%). They'll face off against Pittsburgh righty Mitch Keller who is mediocre but tends to start strong, pitching to a 2.25 ERA in the first inning thisy ear. His counterpart is Kodai Senga who has a 1.16 ERA through seven starts. The 2023 All-Star should shut down a Pirates lineup that is second-last in OPS (.627)and dead-last in runs per game (3.10).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Kodai Senga today.. Bryan Reynolds has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams today, the 10th-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Joey Bart is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Joey Bart hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. Out of all the teams today, the 10th-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.. Joey Bart has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.3-mph mark.

Pete Alonso projects as the 16th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Pete Alonso will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Pete Alonso has made notable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 13.2% rate last year to 18.5% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 10th-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.. Andrew McCutchen has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.9-mph average to last year's 93-mph figure.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Juan Soto will have the upper hand today.. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 10th-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.. Henry Davis has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .210 figure is quite a bit lower than his .235 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Ranking in the 76th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.08 ft/sec this year, Henry Davis is very quick.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alexander Canario in the 83rd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Out of all the teams today, the 10th-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.. Alexander Canario has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 23.5% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past week.. Alexander Canario's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 23.5% on the season to 50% in the last week's worth of games.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Juan Soto will have the upper hand today.. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Matt Gorski has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Matt Gorski hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. Out of all the teams today, the 10th-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Out of all the teams today, the 10th-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.. Jared Triolo has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.3-mph figure.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.297) may lead us to conclude that Jared Triolo has had some very poor luck this year with his .206 actual wOBA.