Philadelphia @ Cleveland picks

There’s a huge pitching advantage for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, with Zack Wheeler dialing it in across his past four starts. The veteran righty has allowed exactly two runs in each with a tidy 2.70 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 1.89 xFIP. Wheeler has also been piling up the strikeouts with 38 across 26 2/3 frames while holding opposing hitters to a miniscule .194 batting average and issuing just three free passes. The Cleveland Guardians have Luis Ortiz toeing the rubber, and he sports a career 4.27 ERA and 4.76 xFIP as a starter.

My projections see some decent value on this number, pricing Zack Wheeler's Under right around -105. When you factor in the matchup a little deeper and umpire Alan Porter's tendency to favor hitters, it's easy to take the view that this is the preferred side on this prop. From top to bottom, the Guardians aren't the easiest team to strike out. Getting contact and putting the ball into play have been hallmarks of their success for a few years now, and not much has changed this season. 

To get after Zack Wheeler, who takes the mound for the Phillies, it is essential that you hit the fastball well. He throws it over 40% of the time, and throughout his career, it's been his strongest pitch. Jose Ramirez will be placed behind the two best hitters of the fastball on the roster, Daniel Schneemann and Steven Kwan. Schneemann, in particular, has been devastating against the four-seam with a slugging percentage of .852 and a wOBA of .547 when seeing it. Ahead of him is Kwan, who doesn't strike out and has baseball's 15th highest on-base percentage. You like that combo if you're looking for someone behind him to drive home a run.

Max Kepler should make his impact felt here. With just one head-to-head meeting between himself and Guardians pitcher Luis Ortiz, there's not much to go by from a historical standpoint. However, the underlying metrics of the matchup look positive. Ortiz leans primarily on three pitches, with the fastball topping the list. Kepler hasn't produced well against the fastball this season, but that's only one part of the story. He leads all Phillies in expected batting average against that pitch. That screams that positive regression is coming, and this is a good spot against a pitcher that gives up tons of barrels and hard contact.

When assessing his home run ability, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.. In the majors, Progressive Field's right field fences are the 5th-shallowest.. Kyle Manzardo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's game.. Kyle Manzardo will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in the league, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Bo Naylor will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's game.. Bo Naylor will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Bo Naylor's launch angle of late (28° in the last 7 days) is significantly better than his 24.2° seasonal mark.. Bo Naylor's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (24.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 17.5° figure last year.

Daniel Schneemann has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. In the majors, Progressive Field's right field fences are the 5th-shallowest.. Daniel Schneemann will have the handedness advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's matchup.. Daniel Schneemann will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Daniel Schneemann has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 4.8% rate last season to 21.2% this season.

Gabriel Arias's BABIP talent is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in the league, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Gabriel Arias has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball hitters like Gabriel Arias generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Wheeler.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Gabriel Arias will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 85th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in the league, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Nolan Jones will have the handedness advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's game.. Nolan Jones has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.. Nolan Jones will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.