St. Louis @ Washington picks

The Cardinals have won eight straight and — outside of games in Boston and New York — have been very strong this season. One reason has been the emergence of starter Matthew Liberatore. While Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez is a tough opponent, the plus-money odds on the ML for the visitors is where the value lies.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 19.9% underlying K%.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 83°.. MacKenzie Gore's fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this year (94.8 mph) below where it was last season (95.9 mph).. MacKenzie Gore has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching a 13.30 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.88 — a 2.43 K/9 discrepancy.

Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. The 9th-shallowest left field fences in MLB are found in Nationals Park.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 83°.. Hitting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Masyn Winn will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. In MLB, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 83°.. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.

Alex Call is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The 9th-shallowest left field fences in MLB are found in Nationals Park.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 83°.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Alex Call will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Over the past week, Alex Call's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.1% up to 11.1%.

When assessing his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 83°.. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand today.. James Wood has big-time HR ability (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas struggles to strike batters out (21st percentile K%) — great news for Wood.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 83°.. Victor Scott II has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Victor Scott II's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 21% on the season to 25% in the past two weeks.. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs), Victor Scott II and his 17.8% rank in the 77th percentile since the start of last season.

The 9th-shallowest left field fences in MLB are found in Nationals Park.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 83°.. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.. MacKenzie Gore's fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this year (94.8 mph) below where it was last season (95.9 mph).

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. In MLB, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 83°.. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Crews in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 83°.. Dylan Crews has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.. Dylan Crews will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.301) implies that Dylan Crews has had bad variance on his side this year with his .252 actual wOBA.

When assessing his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 83°.. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand today.. James Wood has big-time HR ability (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas struggles to strike batters out (21st percentile K%) — great news for Wood.