Chicago @ New York picks

The Cubs have gotten off to slow starts, plating a run in the first inning at the fourth-lowest rate in the majors (23.1%). The Mets score in the first inning at the sixth-lowest rate (25.6%). Tylor Megill is in the midst of a breakout season for the Mets, pitching to a 2.50 ERA through seven starts. He's been dominant in the first inning where he has yet to allow a run this year while posting an OBA of .087. The Cubs will start Brad Keller who usually works out of the bullpen. I'm not sure how long Keller will stay in the game but I trust him to be able to get through the first inning unscathed. 

Soto is slashing .367/.474/.933 with a pair of doubles and five homers in eight games this month. The five-time Silver Slugger winner is in the top five percent in exit velocity and hard-hit rate which has led to an xSLG of .641 — the fourth-best number in the majors. He'll have the platoon advantage today against Cubs starter Brad Keller. Keller has primarily worked out of the bullpen the last two years and when he previously started he struggled, posting a 5.14 ERA in 57 starts from 2021 to 2023. Soto has a history of dominating Keller, going 4-6 at the plate with two dingers in his career. 

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. Seiya Suzuki has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last season to 17% this year.. Seiya Suzuki's launch angle in recent games (23.7° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit higher than his 20° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Dansby Swanson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Dansby Swanson's launch angle this season (17.4°) is considerably higher than his 10.2° angle last season.. Dansby Swanson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, going from 44.7% on the season to 69.2% in the last 7 days.. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Dansby Swanson has notched a .322 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

When estimating his home run talent, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In the majors, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest.. Francisco Alvarez will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. In the last week's worth of games, Francisco Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.3% up to 14.3%.. Francisco Alvarez has recorded a .314 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 77th percentile.

Carson Kelly is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Carson Kelly hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Carson Kelly has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.6% rate last season to 18.8% this year.. Carson Kelly's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 96.8-mph seasonal average has lowered to 92.2-mph in the past week.. Posting a .352 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Carson Kelly has performed in the 89th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 8th-best batter in the game.. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. In the majors, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest.. Batting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an edge in today's game.. Kyle Tucker is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

When it comes to his home run ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. In the majors, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest.. Hitting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an edge in today's matchup.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. In the majors, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest.. Francisco Lindor will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Francisco Lindor has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 95.2-mph in the past 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. In the majors, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest.. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Tylor Megill.. Ian Happ has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 89-mph EV.

It is scheduled that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Lance Barksdale) in charge of the strike zone today.. In the majors, Citi Field's CF dimensions are the shallowest.. Tylor Megill's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (65.9 vs. 56.3% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.. Tylor Megill has been lucky this year, notching a 2.50 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.03 — a 1.53 difference.. Chicago Cubs batters collectively rank 7th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 9.8% Barrel%.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. Seiya Suzuki has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last season to 17% this year.. Seiya Suzuki's launch angle in recent games (23.7° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit higher than his 20° seasonal angle.