Philadelphia @ Cleveland picks

Betting on good offenses seems like a good strategy, especially when taking on pitchers who boast an ERA north of 5. The Phils' bats stay hot, and Aaron Nola gets his second win with his third great start in succession. 

Phillies starter Aaron Nola has a 4.61 ERA in seven starts while pitching to a 6.43 ERA in the first inning. He faces a Guardians squad that has been red hot, plating at least eight runs in three-straight games. The Phillies have a formidable lineup that is ninth in the majors in OPS (.743) and scores a run in the first inning at the fourth-highest rate (37.8%). They should get on the board early against Cleveland starter Gavin Williams who has an xERA of 5.81. He's been even worse in the opening frame where he has an ERA of 6.43 with an OBA of .379. 

THE BAT is projecting 17.40 outs from the Phillies starter on 98 pitches, but there is a chance he sees a lighter workload. Aaron Nola, who struggled mightily at the beginning of the season, is coming off a 109-pitch game where he almost was scratched because of a neck injury. His neck could always flare up again and management might keep him on a shorter leash. Nola has thrown more than 109 pitches just once over his last three seasons. It’s not a spot he hits often, and that combined with some early-season struggles and facing a Cleveland team that takes a lot of pitches is a great spot for this plus-money prop tonight.

Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Bo Naylor will have an advantage today.. Extreme groundball batters like Bo Naylor generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Aaron Nola.. Bo Naylor will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Bo Naylor has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.8-mph figure.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. In the majors, Progressive Field's RF fences are the 3rd-shallowest.. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Hitters such as Kyle Manzardo with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Aaron Nola who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Kyle Manzardo will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jose Ramirez ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Hitters such as Jose Ramirez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Aaron Nola who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 15th-best batter in the league when estimating his BABIP ability.. Trea Turner is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums.. In notching a .344 BABIP since the start of last season, Trea Turner grades out in the 96th percentile.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. In the majors, Progressive Field's RF fences are the 3rd-shallowest.. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Hitters such as Kyle Manzardo with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Aaron Nola who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Kyle Manzardo will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jose Ramirez ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Hitters such as Jose Ramirez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Aaron Nola who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Gavin Williams has averaged 100.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 99th percentile.. Progressive Field has the 4th-tallest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this contest predicts the 2nd-lowest temperature on the slate today at 55°.. Gavin Williams is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in the league in this game.. Gavin Williams will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his metrics in all categories.

The #6 park in the majors for boosting base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums.. The Cleveland Guardians have 8 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Aaron Nola in this matchup.. Given that flyball hitters have a notable advantage over groundball pitchers, Aaron Nola and his 42.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard position today squaring off against 3 opposing GB hitters.. Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Aaron Nola today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jose Ramirez ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Hitters such as Jose Ramirez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Aaron Nola who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Gabriel Arias's BABIP ability is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Gabriel Arias has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.. Gabriel Arias will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Gabriel Arias's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 11.9% to 19%.