New York @ Arizona picks

The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks have two of the better offenses in the National League, with Arizona averaging 5.18 runs per game, while New York is scoring 4.80 runs per game. That means we should always at least consider the Over in this matchup, as we can set an expectation for around 10 runs per game in a vacuum. But the pitching matchup is still crucial, as always. And in tonight’s game, I think it pushes us to the Over when 10 runs will get us a win against the total. 

Carroll has mashed right-handed pitchers to the tune of a .369 wOBA, .249 ISO and .868 OPS to start his career, and I also value the Arizona outfielder picking up a pair of hits Sunday to snap out of a mini funk in which he went 6-for-39 with a .483 OPS over a nine-game stretch. Carroll stands to fare well against Mets righty Griffin Canning, too. Canning sports a 2.61 ERA despite a 46.0% hard-hit rate, and he entered the campaign with a 4.73 ERA across 490 2/3 innings. Statistical correction looms for the New York righty.

Soto is cruising along a 12-for-39 stretch with five extra-base hits, a .410 wOBA, .231 ISO and .938 OPS across the 10-game heater. Diamondbacks righty Ryne Nelson is making his first start of the 2025 season, and he’s saddling a 46.9% hard-hit rate in relief and sports a career 4.83 ERA and 4.65 xFIP across 294 1/3 innings as a starter. Nelson has also surrendered a healthy .343 and .812 OPS to left-handed hitters as a starter during his career, and Soto enters with an elite .407 wOBA, .265 ISO and .957 OPS against right-handed arms dating back to the beginning of the 2022 campaign. Additionally, Soto has a pair of home runs with a .917 slugging percentage and 1.387 OPS across 17 career plate appearances against Nelson.