Tampa Bay @ New York picks
Yankee Stadium
TB vs NYY Picks
MLB Picks
Total

Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst
The Under has hit in three straight games between these teams, but the pitching matchup is begging for an Over wager. New York has already roughed up Taj Bradley this season, lighting him up for a season-worst nine hits and six earned runs. And, with Will Warren’s recent struggles, the space is there for Tampa bats to do some damage on getaway day.
Total RBIs

Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium projects as the #5 park in the majors for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Will Warren throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have an advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Yankee Stadium projects as the #5 park in the majors for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Brandon Lowe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Will Warren today.
Total RBIs

Trent Grisham o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Yankee Stadium projects as the #5 park in the majors for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Trent Grisham will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+110)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #5 park in MLB for boosting home runs to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Aaron Judge will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Ben Rice o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his home run talent, Ben Rice ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium projects as the #5 park in the majors for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Ben Rice will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Danny Jansen o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-175)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The #5 park in MLB for boosting home runs to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Extreme flyball hitters like Danny Jansen tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Will Warren.. Danny Jansen's launch angle this year (24.9°) is considerably higher than his 21.6° angle last year.. Danny Jansen's launch angle lately (30.5° over the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 24.9° seasonal figure.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Ben Rortvedt o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-150)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Yankee Stadium projects as the #5 park in the majors for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Will Warren throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have an advantage today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Brandon Lowe o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Yankee Stadium projects as the #5 park in the majors for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Brandon Lowe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Will Warren today.
Total Bases

Cody Bellinger u1.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 0.9 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 16th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Yankee Stadium has the 6th-deepest centerfield fences in the league.. Typically, hitters like Cody Bellinger who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Taj Bradley.. Cody Bellinger's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 17.6% to 11.8%.. In the last 7 days, Cody Bellinger's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.8%.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jonathan Aranda o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+100)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium projects as the #5 park in the majors for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Will Warren throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have an advantage in today's matchup.