Minnesota @ Boston picks

Alex Bregman has been the perfect addition to this Boston Red Sox lineup. The veteran is batting .326 with seven home runs and 26 RBI already, fully living up to the expectations that came along with being their marquee free agent signing this past winter. The third baseman has had tons of success against the Minnesota Twins’ starter tonight, Joe Ryan. He’s 6 for 13 lifetime with three doubles, a homer, and four RBI. 12 of his RBI have come on the road as well. Bregman will play his part in helping the Red Sox score some runs in the series opener at Target Field.

Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has a 3.27 ERA through two starts but his 6.33 FIP and 7.43 xERA suggest regression. Bello had a 4.50 ERA with an OBA of .276 in the first inning in 30 starts last year. Twins starter Joe Ryan is also due for regression. He sits in the bottom 10th percentile in barrel rate and average exit velocity while the Red Sox lead the majors in exit velocity and are second in barrel rate. They are sixth in OPS (.749) and fourth in run first inning percentage (39.39%). The Twins score in the opening frame, 31.3% of the time. They've also been hitting the ball better recently, boasting an OPS of .755 over the last 15 days.