Tampa Bay @ San Diego Picks & Props

The #5 park in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which tends to lead to less offense. Ryan Pepiot will hold the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Fernando Tatis Jr.'s true offensive talent to be a .385, suggesting that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .047 deviation between that mark and his actual .432 wOBA.

In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Martin Maldonado will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Martin Maldonado's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.2-mph over the course of the season to 103.3-mph of late. Martin Maldonado's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, rising from 64.5% on the season to 70% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Chandler Simpson will hold the platoon advantage over Dylan Cease in today's matchup. Chandler Simpson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Bats such as Chandler Simpson with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Dylan Cease who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Dylan Cease in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Xander Bogaerts will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (23.8° in the last two weeks) is significantly better than his 9.2° seasonal angle.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today. Christopher Morel has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 10.3% rate last season to 25% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 16th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average talent. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Bats such as Yandy Diaz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Dylan Cease who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today. In the past 7 days, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95-mph over the course of the season to 97.1-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Junior Caminero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Junior Caminero are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Dylan Cease. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Jonathan Aranda will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today's matchup. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oscar Gonzalez in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Oscar Gonzalez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Oscar Gonzalez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Oscar Gonzalez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Oscar Gonzalez will hold that advantage today.

Taylor Walls hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Taylor Walls's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.6-mph over the course of the season to 92.2-mph in recent games. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.253) provides evidence that Taylor Walls has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .238 actual wOBA.

In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 16.4% to 23.7%. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 21.2% on the season to 50% in the last week's worth of games. Danny Jansen has displayed strong plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile with a 1.41 K/BB rate.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Pepiot today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage today. Gavin Sheets has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.4-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 91.9-mph EV. Over the last week, Gavin Sheets's 75% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 52.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Hitters such as Jose Iglesias with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ryan Pepiot who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Jose Iglesias will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Checking in at the 91st percentile, Jose Iglesias has notched a .358 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season. Sporting a .332 batting average since the start of last season, Jose Iglesias is positioned in the 100th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Manny Machado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Manny Machado has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 10.6% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last 7 days.

In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Yuli Gurriel will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Yuli Gurriel has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 25.2 ft/sec to 26.65 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Yuli Gurriel has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .252 rate is quite a bit lower than his .277 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today. Compared to his seasonal average of 18°, Jose Caballero has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 37.5° mark in the last week. Compared to last year, Jose Caballero has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.2% to 28% this season. Posting a .319 BABIP since the start of last season, Jose Caballero is ranked in the 83rd percentile.

In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Tyler Wade will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Tyler Wade tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Tyler Wade will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.293) implies that Tyler Wade has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .255 actual wOBA.

Kameron Misner will have the handedness advantage over Dylan Cease in today's matchup. Kameron Misner hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.6°, Kameron Misner has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 43.5° angle in the past week's worth of games.

Tirso Ornelas is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Tirso Ornelas will have the upper hand today. Extreme flyball bats like Tirso Ornelas usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot. Tirso Ornelas will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Elias Diaz has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.