Tampa Bay @ San Diego Picks & Props

The #5 stadium in the game for suppressing batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which tends to lead to worse offense. Shane Baz will have the handedness advantage over Fernando Tatis Jr. in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Fernando Tatis Jr.'s true offensive ability to be a .386, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .046 gap between that mark and his actual .432 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Chandler Simpson is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Chandler Simpson will have the upper hand in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Chandler Simpson generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Michael King.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 16th-best batter in the game when assessing his batting average skill. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Extreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael King. Among every team playing today, the 10th-weakest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres. This season, Yandy Diaz has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95 mph compared to last year's 91.9 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all stadiums. Among every team playing today, the 10th-weakest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres. Christopher Morel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 14.7% to 27.3%. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Christopher Morel has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .285 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .302.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand today. Brandon Lowe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Among every team playing today, the 10th-weakest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all stadiums. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's game. Xander Bogaerts's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (24.2° over the last 14 days) is a significant increase over his 9.4° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Junior Caminero hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Batters such as Junior Caminero with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Michael King who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Among every team playing today, the 10th-weakest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oscar Gonzalez in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Oscar Gonzalez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Oscar Gonzalez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Oscar Gonzalez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Shane Baz who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Oscar Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's game.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all stadiums. Tyler Wade will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Baz today. Extreme flyball bats like Tyler Wade tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Tyler Wade will hold that advantage in today's game. Tyler Wade has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .255 figure is a fair amount lower than his .293 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have an advantage in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 10th-weakest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all stadiums. Elias Diaz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Taylor Walls hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Among every team playing today, the 10th-weakest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres. In the past week, Taylor Walls's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.6-mph over the course of the season to 93.6-mph lately. In the past week, Taylor Walls's 77.8% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 52.4%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.253) suggests that Taylor Walls has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .238 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Hitters such as Jose Iglesias with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Shane Baz who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jose Iglesias will hold that advantage in today's game. Placing in the 92nd percentile, Jose Iglesias has notched a .359 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season. Jose Iglesias has put up a .334 batting average since the start of last season, placing in the 100th percentile.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage against Shane Baz in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.4-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.9-mph mark. In the past week's worth of games, Gavin Sheets's 75% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 52.7%.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's game. Manny Machado has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 10.8% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week's worth of games.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all stadiums. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Tirso Ornelas will have an advantage in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Tirso Ornelas usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Tirso Ornelas will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all stadiums. Among every team playing today, the 10th-weakest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres. Over the last two weeks, Danny Jansen's 61.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 36.4%. In terms of plate discipline, Danny Jansen's skill is quite impressive, posting a 1.39 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 95th percentile.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all stadiums. Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have an advantage today. Among every team playing today, the 10th-weakest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Kameron Misner will have the upper hand in today's game. Kameron Misner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Among every team playing today, the 10th-weakest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres. Kameron Misner's launch angle of late (37.3° in the last 7 days) is significantly better than his 11.6° seasonal mark.