Seattle @ Boston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best venue in baseball for lefty batting average. J.P. Crawford hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, J.P. Crawford's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.7% up to 16.7%. Last season, J.P. Crawford had an average launch angle of 13.3° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 20.9°.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the 4th-best pitching conditions of the day. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Julio Rodriguez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. In the last week, Julio Rodriguez's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.7%.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the 4th-best pitching conditions of the day. Emerson Hancock will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alex Bregman in today's game. Typically, hitters like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Emerson Hancock. Alex Bregman has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 8.3% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the 4th-best pitching conditions of the day. Jarren Duran has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Jarren Duran's launch angle recently (-2.7° in the past 7 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 11.1° seasonal mark. Last season, Jarren Duran had a launch angle of 8.4° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 3.4°.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Triston Casas ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best venue in baseball for lefty batting average. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest RF dimensions among all stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Emerson Hancock throws from, Triston Casas will have an edge today. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Triston Casas has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best venue in baseball for lefty batting average. Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock in today's game. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Kristian Campbell is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Kristian Campbell will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Romy Gonzalez has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme groundball bats like Romy Gonzalez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Emerson Hancock. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.

The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the last week, Ceddanne Rafaela's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.4% up to 20%.

Trevor Story's BABIP ability is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Trevor Story hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best venue in baseball for lefty batting average. Blake Sabol will have the handedness advantage against Emerson Hancock today. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Blake Sabol has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Blake Sabol has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Randy Arozarena will have the upper hand in today's game. Randy Arozarena hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Mitch Garver is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Mitch Garver will have an advantage in today's game. Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Mitch Garver generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Sean Newcomb.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Dylan Moore ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Dylan Moore is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Dylan Moore will hold the platoon advantage over Sean Newcomb in today's game. Dylan Moore pulls many of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Cal Raleigh will get to bat from his good side against Sean Newcomb in this game. Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Hitters such as Cal Raleigh with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Sean Newcomb who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Donovan Solano will have an edge in today's game. Donovan Solano hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Donovan Solano's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 15.5% to 24%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best venue in baseball for lefty batting average. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage over Emerson Hancock today. Wilyer Abreu is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Leonardo Rivas will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Sean Newcomb in this game. Leonardo Rivas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.339) provides evidence that Leonardo Rivas has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .282 actual wOBA.

The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners. Carlos Narvaez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Carlos Narvaez has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12.5% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The #5 field in the league for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Benjamin Williamson will have the upper hand in today's game. Benjamin Williamson is quite fast, placing in the 75th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28 ft/sec this year.

Luke Raley has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.