Houston @ Seattle Picks & Props

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Isaac Paredes usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Castillo. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team today. Isaac Paredes's 22.3° launch angle (a reliable metric to evaluate a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in the game: 99th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. J.P. Crawford will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and J.P. Crawford will hold that advantage in today's game. J.P. Crawford has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .197 rate is deflated compared to his .241 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 4th-best batter in the game. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Castillo today... and even more favorably, Castillo has a large platoon split. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team today. Jose Altuve has posted a .352 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, checking in at the 89th percentile.

Yainer Diaz's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yainer Diaz has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team today. Yainer Diaz has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite well lately, notching a 20.4° angle on such balls over the past 14 days. Yainer Diaz has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .320 figure is a fair amount lower than his .339 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Julio Rodriguez has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Julio Rodriguez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last season's 91.7-mph EV.

Brendan Rodgers's BABIP skill is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Rodgers has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team today. Brendan Rodgers has been hot of late, notching a 94.4-mph average exit velocity in the past week's worth of games. In the last week's worth of games, Brendan Rodgers's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 66.7% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team today. Jake Meyers has been hot of late, notching a a 20% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) over the last week. Over the last week, Jake Meyers's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 60% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°. Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .220 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .259 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team today. Victor Caratini's 91-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in baseball since the start of last season: 83rd percentile. Placing in the 81st percentile, Victor Caratini has posted a .330 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season. Victor Caratini has put up a .278 batting average since the start of last season, placing in the 88th percentile.

Miles Mastrobuoni will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's game. Miles Mastrobuoni has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Miles Mastrobuoni will hold that advantage today. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Miles Mastrobuoni has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .221 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .268.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Jorge Polanco are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jorge Polanco will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.324) suggests that Jorge Polanco has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .298 actual wOBA.

Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Cal Raleigh generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage today. Cal Raleigh's launch angle this year (26°) is significantly higher than his 21° figure last season.

Jeremy Pena's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeremy Pena is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team today. In the past week, Jeremy Pena has averaged an impressive 100.1-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced measure of home run potential.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Luke Raley is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Luke Raley will have an advantage in today's matchup. Luke Raley will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Dylan Moore pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Dylan Moore are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Dylan Moore will hold that advantage today. Over the last week, Dylan Moore has averaged an impressive 102.1-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced proxy for home run potential. Dylan Moore has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs recently, lifting balls between 23° and 34° 37.5% of the time in the last week's worth of games.

Christian Walker is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of every team today. In the past week, Christian Walker's maximum exit velocity (a favorable proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 112.8-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the majors. Over the last 14 days, Christian Walker's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 60% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Randy Arozarena has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last season's 90.4-mph average.

Ryan Bliss has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Ryan Bliss will hold that advantage today. Ryan Bliss has been hot lately, compiling a a 16.7% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the last week's worth of games. In the last 7 days, Ryan Bliss's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 33.3% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. Rowdy Tellez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's matchup. Rowdy Tellez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Rowdy Tellez has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.5 mph (a reliable standard to study power), placing in the 93rd percentile.

Mauricio Dubon has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.