Boston @ Baltimore Picks & Props

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to drop to the 5th-lowest level on the slate at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts). Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-deepest LF fences today. The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the strongest out of every team today. Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jarren Duran in today's matchup. Jarren Duran's quickness has declined this year. His 29.6 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.34 ft/sec now.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to drop to the 5th-lowest level on the slate at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts). Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Alex Bregman encounters a tough challenge today. The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the strongest out of every team today. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Alex Bregman today. Alex Bregman's quickness has declined this season. His 26.69 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.24 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Hitting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand in today's game. Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Wilyer Abreu tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Zach Eflin. Wilyer Abreu has been hot of late, compiling a a 27.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heston Kjerstad in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Heston Kjerstad is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Heston Kjerstad will hold that advantage today. Ranking in the 82nd percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.52 ft/sec since the start of last season, Heston Kjerstad is quite quick.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Triston Casas ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Triston Casas will hold the platoon advantage over Zach Eflin in today's game. Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Triston Casas's 96.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 94th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Jordan Westburg is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Jordan Westburg will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jordan Westburg will hold that advantage today. In the last 7 days, Jordan Westburg has displayed impressive power, recording a a 28.6% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, Rafael Devers is in the 83rd percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .345. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Rafael Devers ranks in the 75th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .267.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Jackson Holliday will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) provides evidence that Jackson Holliday has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .260 actual wOBA. Jackson Holliday's 94-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced standard to study power) grades out in the 75th percentile since the start of last season.

Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Cedric Mullins has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs in recent games, lifting balls between 23° and 34° 37.5% of the time in the past week. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Cedric Mullins ranks in the 98th percentile with a 21.2° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in the game.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Adley Rutschman will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Garrett Crochet in this game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Adley Rutschman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Adley Rutschman has displayed impressive power, recording a a 16.7% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power).

Trevor Story is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Extreme groundball hitters like Trevor Story tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Zach Eflin.

Ceddanne Rafaela and his 17.5° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 91st percentile, among the highest in baseball since the start of last season.

Connor Wong's BABIP talent is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Connor Wong has displayed some good exit velocity benchmarks in recent games, averaging 103.2-mph on his flyballs in the last week. Grading out in the 92nd percentile, Connor Wong has notched a .333 BABIP since the start of last season.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Tyler O'Neill will have the handedness advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game. Tyler O'Neill will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Tyler O'Neill's 17.2% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Ryan Mountcastle will have an edge in today's matchup. Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences today. Ryan Mountcastle will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Ramon Urias will have the upper hand today. Ramon Urias hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage today. Ramon Urias has been hot in recent games, posting a a 15.4% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) over the past 7 days. Ramon Urias has been lifting the ball well recently, putting up a 21.3° launch angle in the past 7 days.

Jorge Mateo will have the handedness advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game. Jorge Mateo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jorge Mateo will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jorge Mateo has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .222 rate is quite a bit lower than his .245 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Jorge Mateo is quite athletic, ranking in the 99th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.9 ft/sec since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Ramon Laureano has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Ramon Laureano will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Ramon Laureano will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Since the start of last season, Ramon Laureano's 12.4% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 86th percentile among his peers.

Gary Sanchez will have the handedness advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game. Gary Sanchez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Since the start of last season, Gary Sanchez's 10.3% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 76th percentile among his peers. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Gary Sanchez has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.4 mph (an advanced standard to evaluate power), checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Kristian Campbell has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.