Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Adam Frazier will have an advantage today. Adam Frazier has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .202 figure is considerably lower than his .245 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Adam Frazier grades out in the 86th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (18.4% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 3rd-worst field in MLB for RHB batting average. Justin Lawrence will have the handedness advantage against Yandy Diaz in today's matchup... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Lawrence's huge platoon split. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Yandy Diaz has been cold in recent games, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) in the last week. Yandy Diaz has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs in recent games, lifting balls between 23° and 34° just 0% of the time in the past week.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Christopher Morel will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Oneil Cruz will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz.

Jack Suwinski is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Jack Suwinski will have an advantage in today's game. Jack Suwinski pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Junior Caminero's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Typically, hitters like Junior Caminero who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Justin Lawrence.

Bryan Reynolds's BABIP ability is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Shane Baz.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez's 18.9° launch angle (a reliable metric to study a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the steepest in the majors: 86th percentile.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Jonny Deluca will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Ke'Bryan Hayes has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

Tommy Pham is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Extreme groundball batters like Tommy Pham usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Baz. In the last week's worth of games, Tommy Pham's maximum exit velocity (a favorable proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 111-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in Major League Baseball.

Joey Bart is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. In the past two weeks, Joey Bart has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, compiling a 26.8° angle. Grading out in the 78th percentile, the hardest ball Joey Bart has hit since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 111.5 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

Jake Mangum is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Typically, bats like Jake Mangum who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Justin Lawrence. Jake Mangum will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Danny Jansen will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Danny Jansen's 21.6° launch angle (an advanced standard to study a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in MLB: 98th percentile. As it relates to plate discipline, Danny Jansen's talent is quite strong, putting up a 1.4 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Andrew McCutchen has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits recently, lifting balls between -4° and 26° 57.1% of the time in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Brandon Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Lawrence today... and moreover, Lawrence has a huge platoon split.

Curtis Mead is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Curtis Mead has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Curtis Mead will hold that advantage today.

Jared Triolo's BABIP skill is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Jared Triolo has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Over the past 14 days, Jared Triolo's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 27.3% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Considering Justin Lawrence's huge platoon split, Jonathan Aranda will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Taylor Walls ranks in the 83rd percentile with a 18° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in the league. Taylor Walls has displayed good plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 79th percentile with a 2.05 K/BB rate.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the hottest weather on the slate at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Considering Justin Lawrence's huge platoon split, Kameron Misner will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Kameron Misner will hold that advantage in today's game.