Boston @ Toronto Picks & Props

Rogers Centre profiles as the #22 field in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Richard Fitts will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alejandro Kirk today. Alejandro Kirk's launch angle recently (-3.8° in the past week's worth of games) is a considerable dropoff from his 9.9° seasonal mark. Sporting a .274 BABIP this year, Alejandro Kirk is positioned in the 23rd percentile.

Rogers Centre profiles as the #22 field in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 5th-best pitching conditions on the schedule today. Richard Fitts will hold the platoon advantage against George Springer today. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. George Springer's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 87.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 80.7-mph over the past 14 days.

The #6 field in the majors for suppressing batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Jarren Duran's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.5% down to 0%. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, notching a .357 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .338 — a .019 difference.

Romy Gonzalez's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Romy Gonzalez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. In the last week's worth of games, Romy Gonzalez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.3% up to 20%.

The #6 field in the majors for suppressing batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Nathan Lukes has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.9-mph dropping to 83.9-mph over the past week. Nathan Lukes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, going from 5.2% on the season to 0% in the last week. Nathan Lukes has been cold recently, compiling a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) over the last 14 days. Nathan Lukes has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .338 rate is inflated compared to his .291 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leo Jimenez in the 86th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Leo Jimenez will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 78th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Triston Casas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Triston Casas will have an advantage today.

Rogers Centre profiles as the #22 field in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Richard Fitts will hold the platoon advantage against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 93.8-mph dropping to 90.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s launch angle this year (7.1°) is considerably lower than his 10.2° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 81st percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. Spencer Horwitz will have the handedness advantage over Richard Fitts today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ernie Clement will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Loperfido in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Joey Loperfido will hold the platoon advantage against Richard Fitts today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joey Loperfido has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Vaughn Grissom has suffered from bad luck this year. His .196 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .280.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. Ceddanne Rafaela has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 7.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 7 days. In the last two weeks, Ceddanne Rafaela has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 25.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 17.9°.

Connor Wong's BABIP ability is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. In the last 7 days, Connor Wong's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.3% up to 18.2%.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage in today's game.

Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Addison Barger will have the handedness advantage over Richard Fitts today.

Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Nick Sogard has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 101.6-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 87.9-mph. Nick Sogard's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 18.6% on the season to 33.3% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Jonatan Clase has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Over the last 7 days, Trevor Story's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.8% up to 20%. Trevor Story has recorded a .321 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Enmanuel Valdez has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89.5-mph average to last season's 87.5-mph EV.

Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report predicts the 3rd-most humidity of the day at 86%. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Tyler Heineman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.