Toronto @ Texas Picks & Props

Globe Life Field ranks as the #29 venue in baseball for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Given Kumar Rocker's large platoon split, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a gigantic disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.

Nathaniel Lowe's BABIP ability is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an advantage today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Nathaniel Lowe will hold that advantage today. Nathaniel Lowe has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 102.6-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 90.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Wyatt Langford will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. In the last week's worth of games, Wyatt Langford's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.4% up to 28.6%. Wyatt Langford's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 14.9% on the season to 35.7% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Josh Jung will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.9°, Josh Jung has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 31.8° angle in the past week. Josh Jung has recorded a .262 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Grading out in the 94th percentile, Josh Jung sits with a .343 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leo Jimenez in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Leo Jimenez's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 52.6%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.244) provides evidence that Leo Jimenez has suffered from bad luck this year with his .224 actual batting average. Based on Statcast data, Leo Jimenez ranks in the 77th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .325.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Marcus Semien is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today. Marcus Semien will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. In the last week, Marcus Semien's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.4% up to 14.3%. Marcus Semien's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (26.1° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is considerably higher than his 14.4° seasonal mark.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jonah Heim will hold that advantage today. Jonah Heim has been unlucky this year, putting up a .258 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .288 — a .030 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Because of Kumar Rocker's large platoon split, Spencer Horwitz will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Spencer Horwitz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 91.8-mph over the past 14 days. Spencer Horwitz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, rising from 20.9% on the season to 37.5% over the past two weeks.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Leody Taveras will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Leody Taveras has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 5.9% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Over the last week, Leody Taveras's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.4-mph over the course of the season to 95.2-mph recently. Leody Taveras's launch angle in recent games (21° in the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 13.3° seasonal mark. Leody Taveras has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .229 rate is a fair amount lower than his .259 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Josh H. Smith is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Josh H. Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's matchup. Josh H. Smith will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Ranking in the 79th percentile, Josh H. Smith sits with a .316 BABIP this year.

Joey Loperfido's BABIP skill is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Joey Loperfido will hold the platoon advantage against Kumar Rocker in today's game... and the cherry on top, Rocker has a large platoon split. Joey Loperfido has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph to 91.6-mph over the last two weeks. Over the last 14 days, Joey Loperfido's 50% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 38.7%. Joey Loperfido and his 17° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 80th percentile, among the highest in the game this year.

Nathan Lukes's batting average skill is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nathan Lukes is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. Given Kumar Rocker's large platoon split, Nathan Lukes will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Nathan Lukes has been hot of late, cruising to a .399 wOBA over the last 14 days.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, George Springer ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, George Springer has had some very poor luck this year. His .223 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .273. In terms of plate discipline, George Springer's ability is quite impressive, sporting a 1.84 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 85th percentile.

Carson Kelly will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Schneider in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Davis Schneider is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Davis Schneider has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12.4% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last 14 days. Over the last week, Davis Schneider's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 98.5-mph of late. In the past 14 days, Davis Schneider's 44.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Ezequiel Duran will hold that advantage today. Checking in at the 78th percentile, Ezequiel Duran sports a .316 BABIP this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Adolis Garcia will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Adolis Garcia's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 14.5% on the season to 25% in the past 14 days. Despite posting a .290 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Adolis Garcia has experienced some negative variance given the .031 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .321.

Because of Kumar Rocker's large platoon split, Addison Barger will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. In the past week, Addison Barger's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.7-mph over the course of the season to 94.7-mph recently. Over the past week, Addison Barger's 50% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.8%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.248) suggests that Addison Barger has suffered from bad luck this year with his .213 actual batting average.

Ernie Clement's batting average ability is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ernie Clement has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Ernie Clement's launch angle recently (41.6° in the last week's worth of games) is a significant increase over his 16.6° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Alejandro Kirk's launch angle this season (9.7°) is considerably higher than his 6.2° mark last season. In the last 7 days, Alejandro Kirk's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.9%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alejandro Kirk's true offensive ability to be a .320, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .029 difference between that figure and his actual .291 wOBA.