Boston @ Tampa Bay props

The #5 park in the game for suppressing batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Yandy Diaz will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's matchup. Typically, batters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brayan Bello. Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 91.9-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 84.3-mph over the last 7 days.

Tropicana Field grades out as the #26 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense projects as the 4th-best among every team today. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jarren Duran in today's game. Compared to his seasonal mark of 9.3°, Jarren Duran has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0.8°) over the last 14 days.

Jose Siri's BABIP skill is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage today. Jose Siri has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .278 figure is quite a bit lower than his .320 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Connor Wong is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in MLB. Connor Wong's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (22.4° over the last 14 days) is a significant increase over his 13.4° seasonal mark. Grading out in the 96th percentile, Connor Wong has put up a .350 BABIP this year.

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest right field fences in the majors. Dylan Carlson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dylan Carlson's true offensive ability to be a .304, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .054 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .250 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 12.4% rate last year to 17.9% this season. Tyler O'Neill has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 17.9% seasonal rate to 37.5% in the last 14 days.

Batters such as Taylor Walls with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Taylor Walls has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 89-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 86.6-mph mark. Taylor Walls's launch angle lately (23.8° over the last 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 19.5° seasonal figure. Taylor Walls's 19.5° launch angle (a reliable standard to evaluate a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in Major League Baseball: 88th percentile.

Ben Rortvedt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ben Rortvedt can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Ben Rortvedt has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage in today's game. Ben Rortvedt's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (34.8° in the last 14 days) is significantly higher than his 9.2° seasonal angle.

Nick Sogard pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Triston Casas will have the upper hand in today's game. Triston Casas has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph to 99.2-mph in the past week. This season, Triston Casas has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98 mph compared to last year's 95.1 mph mark. Triston Casas has posted a .338 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 85th percentile. Triston Casas has notched a .317 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Zack Littell today. There has been a significant improvement in Masataka Yoshida's launch angle from last season's 3.9° to 10.1° this season. In the past 14 days, Masataka Yoshida has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 24.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 12.2°.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP skill is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in MLB. Ceddanne Rafaela has made notable improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 7.8% seasonal rate to 21.1% over the past two weeks.

Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Danny Jansen's true offensive skill to be a .317, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .020 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .297 wOBA. Danny Jansen has exhibited good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 94th percentile with a 1.45 K/BB rate.

Junior Caminero's batting average skill is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Junior Caminero has made significant gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 10.5% seasonal rate to 23.5% over the last 7 days. Junior Caminero has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 96.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split. Brandon Lowe may have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Bats such as Brandon Lowe with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 78th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. In the last 14 days, Christopher Morel's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.7-mph over the course of the season to 98-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Zack Littell in today's game. Wilyer Abreu has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.9-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.8-mph figure. Wilyer Abreu has compiled a .341 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile. In notching a .336 BABIP this year, Wilyer Abreu grades out in the 93rd percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 19th-best hitter in baseball. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's game. Over the last week, Rafael Devers's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.6-mph over the course of the season to 101.9-mph of late. Based on Statcast data, Rafael Devers is in the 77th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .269.

Trevor Story is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in MLB. Trevor Story's launch angle this season (19.7°) is significantly better than his 15.2° angle last season. Over the last week, Trevor Story's 64.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.7%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.286) may lead us to conclude that Trevor Story has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .265 actual wOBA.

Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest right field fences in the majors. Jonathan Aranda will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Jonathan Aranda is likely to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage today.

Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jose Caballero has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.4-mph average to last year's 87.7-mph mark.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.