Pittsburgh @ St. Louis Picks & Props

HRs are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in the majors. In terms of plate discipline, Paul Goldschmidt's skill is quite bad, sporting a 3.74 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 22nd percentile.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Michael A. Taylor hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Despite posting a .236 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael A. Taylor has experienced some negative variance given the .047 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .283. Michael A. Taylor's 11.7% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) is in the 83rd percentile this year.

Batting from the same side that Lance Lynn throws from, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a tough challenge in today's matchup. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. Among every team playing today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. There has been a decrease in Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity this year, from 88.8 mph last year to 85.7 mph now

Rowdy Tellez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Rowdy Tellez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lance Lynn in today's matchup. Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. In the past 14 days, Rowdy Tellez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 95.6-mph in recent games.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Masyn Winn will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bailey Falter in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Masyn Winn's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.2% up to 8.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage today. In the last week's worth of games, Brendan Donovan's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.2% up to 12.5%.

Bryan De La Cruz's BABIP ability is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Bryan De La Cruz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 95.6-mph over the past 7 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bryan De La Cruz's true offensive ability to be a .311, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .029 deviation between that mark and his actual .282 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Lance Lynn. Bryan Reynolds has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 9.6% seasonal rate to 20% in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Andrew McCutchen has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 6.8% rate last season to 12.8% this year.

Joey Bart has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the past week, Joey Bart's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.8-mph over the course of the season to 102.1-mph of late. Ranking in the 91st percentile, Joey Bart has put up a .356 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year. Posting a .263 batting average this year, Joey Bart finds himself in the 80th percentile.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Pedro Pages will have an advantage today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage today. In the last two weeks, Pedro Pages's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.3%.

Jordan Walker's BABIP talent is projected in the 84th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jordan Walker will have the handedness advantage over Bailey Falter today. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jordan Walker will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jared Triolo has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 90.5-mph. In the past two weeks, Jared Triolo has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 19.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 7°. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jared Triolo has had bad variance on his side this year. His .280 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .308.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Nolan Arenado will have an edge today. Nolan Arenado will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 45.7% on the season to 67.9% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Luken Baker is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Luken Baker will hold the platoon advantage over Bailey Falter in today's matchup. Luken Baker will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.320) suggests that Luken Baker has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .293 actual wOBA.