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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 15, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.18 |
-230 
|
o8.5 -105 
|
-1.5 -130 
|
|
4.17 |
+200 
|
u8.5 +100 
|
+1.5 +115
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Yamamotos last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yamamotos last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yamamotos last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Lowders last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+260
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
+112
|
o8.5 -108 
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
4.75 |
-130
|
u8.5 -109
|
-1.5 +165
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 5-0 in Martins last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Griffins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
o0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.91 |
+190
|
o7.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -114
|
|
4.81 |
-220
|
u8.5 -132
|
-1.5 +100
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a road underdog.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Jaxs last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.94 |
-250
|
o7.5 -114
|
-1.5 -135
|
|
3.91 |
+220 
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 +115
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Brewers are 7-1 in Misiorowskis last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 6-1 in Misiorowskis last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Pirates last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+266)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.85 |
-210
|
o7.5 -132
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
2.97 |
+180
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 +105
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sanchezs last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Sanchezs last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Sanchezs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Washington
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Kents last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Kents last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
u0.5+172
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.45 |
+118
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
4.36 |
-134
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+233)
o0.5+233
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
+110
|
o7.5 -122
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.69 |
-125
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +165
|
Baltimore
- Under is 6-0 in Bazs last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.55 |
+120
|
o8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.82 |
-135
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
Atlanta
- Under is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 overall.
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 4-0 in Gausmans last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1300)
o0.5+1300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.31 |
-170
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +100
|
|
3.73 |
+150
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -110
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-0 in Frieds last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0-1 in Obers last 6 home starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
o1.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.77 |
+140
|
o8.0 -118
|
+2.5 -245
|
|
4.95 |
-160
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.5 +195
|
San Francisco
- Over is 7-0 in Giants last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Tidwells last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
St. Louis
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pallantes last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Cardinals last 9 during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
-124
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.92 |
+110
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -150
|
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.98 |
+140
|
o7.5 -121
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
4.25 |
-155
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +136
|
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 on grass.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 4-0 in Browns last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.49 |
-188
|
o11.0 -137
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
5.87 |
+170
|
u11.5 -110
|
+1.5 +108
|
San Diego
- Padres are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
o1.5+100
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.02 |
-165
|
o8.0 -105
|
-1.5 +100
|
|
3.78 |
+145
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -115
|
Seattle
- Over is 8-0 in Mariners last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Gilberts last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Gilberts last 4 starts vs. American League West.
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 home starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
J.P. Crawford o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1050)
o0.5+1050
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
+135
|
o8.0 -148
|
+1.5 -164
|
|
4.96 |
-150
|
u8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +145
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in Sorokas last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+177)
o0.5+204
LAD
@
CIN
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Spread
LAD -1.5 (-137)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Yoshinobu Yamamoto gives Los Angeles a massive edge on the mound against Rhett Lowder, who carries a 5.81 ERA into Tuesday. Rather than paying a premium on the Dodgers moneyline, I’ll lay the run and a half. With L.A.’s lineup capable of creating separation against Lowder, this sets up well for a multi-run Dodgers win.
Total Bases
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (+116)
Projection 2.11
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 14th-best batter in the game when estimating his batting average talent.. Freddie Freeman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The #4 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°.. Freddie Freeman will hold the platoon advantage against Rhett Lowder in today's game.
CHW
@
CLE
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
CLE (-123)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
I'm definitely backing the Cleveland Guardians and Foster Griffin at 55%, as I price them closer to a 59% favorite against the Chicago White Sox in this crucial AL Central matchup. This is a tough matchup for White Sox starter Davis Martin. His main strikeout pitches are his slider and curveball, but the Guardians are likely to stack the lineup with eight left-handed bats, meaning those pitches will be breaking into the barrels of their hitters. We also know how patient this lineup is. Martin doesn't feature an overpowering four-seam fastball and instead leans on his sinker as his best pitch. However, hitters such as José Ramírez and Chase DeLauter are exceptional contact hitters who can waste this pitch. Martin is going to be forced to challenge the Guardians in the zone with his four-seamer, and that's an advantage for Cleveland.
Total Bases
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #2 field in Major League Baseball for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-best for hitting on the slate.
ATH
@
TB
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+184)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Tropicana Field projects as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Cedric Mullins will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Perkins today.. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Athletics outfield defense projects as the weakest among every team in action today.. Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#1-worst on the slate).
Total RBIs
Jonah Heim o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Tropicana Field projects as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the worst among every team in action today.. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 16.5% on the season to 25% in the last two weeks.
MIL
@
PIT
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Lake Bachar o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-170)
Projection 3.11
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Lake Bachar in the 79th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.. Lake Bachar will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats across the board.. Lake Bachar's 2709-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 100th percentile among all SPs.. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Lake Bachar must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 60.7% of the time, grading out in the 77th percentile.. Placing in the 79th percentile, Lake Bachar has compiled a 24.7% Strikeout% this year.
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+285)
Projection 0.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to more offense.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Jacob Misiorowski.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today's game.
PHI
@
WAS
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:45 PM ET
Spread
PHI -1.5 (-126)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Cristopher Sanchez has been one of baseball’s most reliable starters this season, posting a 2.79 ERA with 210 strikeouts, and he gets an excellent matchup against Washington. Nationals starter Jackson Kent owns a 6.59 ERA, giving Philadelphia a significant pitching advantage before factoring in the superior lineup. At -126, I’d rather lay the 1.5 runs than pay the inflated moneyline price.
Total Hits
Dylan Crews u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #3 field in baseball for suppressing base hits to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Dylan Crews has notched a .289 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 15th percentile.. Posting a 3.59 K/BB rate this year, Dylan Crews has shown weak plate discipline, grading out in the 13th percentile.
DET
@
TOR
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:07 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Braydon Fisher o0.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-275)
Projection 3.29
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Projected catcher Alejandro Kirk grades out as a good pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The #4 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for pitching on the slate today.. Braydon Fisher will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats in all categories.. Grading out in the 93rd percentile, Braydon Fisher has compiled a 28% K% since the start of last season.
Total Home Runs
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+525)
Projection 0.17
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 5th-best park in the majors for right-handed home runs.. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Rogers Centre.. Spencer Torkelson has paced 30.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 89th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Spencer Torkelson has averaged 24.8 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 76th percentile for power.
BAL
@
NYM
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Rece Hinds u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rece Hinds in the 17th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Rece Hinds is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game.. Citi Field grades out as the #28 field in baseball for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Citi Field's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for pitching on the slate today.
Total Bases
Christian Encarnacion-Strand o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Christian Encarnacion-Strand will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Manaea has a large platoon split.. Christian Encarnacion-Strand pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. In the last 7 days, Christian Encarnacion-Strand's 40% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.9%.
ATL
@
CHC
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 7th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 5th-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.. Despite posting a .346 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ronald Acuna Jr. has had bad variance on his side given the .027 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .373.
Total Bases
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+171)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the majors.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 5th-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.. Austin Riley has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.6-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 95-mph.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Riley's true offensive ability to be a .332, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .041 difference between that mark and his actual .291 wOBA.
NYY
@
MIN
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Ryan McMahon o0.5 Total RBIs (+248)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Ryan McMahon ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan McMahon will hold the platoon advantage against Bailey Ober today.. Ryan McMahon has big-time power (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Ober is a pitch-to-contact type (11th percentile K%) — great news for McMahon.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of every team in action today.. Ryan McMahon has been unlucky this year, compiling a .279 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .028 difference.
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation in the league, which generally leads to better offense.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of every team in action today.. Over the last week, Aaron Judge's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.2%.
SF
@
STL
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
JB
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Projection 0.16
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joshua Baez in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Joshua Baez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.
Total RBIs
JB
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joshua Baez in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Joshua Baez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.. In the past 14 days, Joshua Baez's 50% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.6%.
KC
@
HOU
Tue, Sep 15 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jose Altuve o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Jose Altuve will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Jose Altuve's launch angle of late (24.3° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit higher than his 10.6° seasonal figure.
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+171)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Salvador Perez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 93.4-mph over the past week.. Over the last week, Salvador Perez's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.4%.. Salvador Perez has been unlucky this year, notching a .282 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .040 deviation.
SD
@
COL
Tue, Sep 15 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-165)
Projection 2.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 11th-best batter in the majors.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.
Total RBIs
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (-106)
Projection 0.96
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.
SEA
@
LAA
Tue, Sep 15 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Randy Arozarena o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest humidity on the slate today at 77%.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+154)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 8th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest humidity on the slate today at 77%.. Among every team today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
MIA
@
AZ
Tue, Sep 15 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Joe Mack o0.5 Total RBIs (+267)
Projection 0.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best park in baseball for boosting offensive stats to lefties.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Batting from the opposite that Michael Soroka throws from, Joe Mack will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Joe Mack may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.. Joe Mack has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 94-mph in the past week's worth of games.
Total RBIs
Tim Tawa o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in the league, which often leads to higher offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Tim Tawa will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.. In the past week, Tim Tawa's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.4-mph over the course of the season to 102.4-mph of late.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
