MLB Picks

Detroit is giving the pill to Jack Flaherty who had a 4.64 ERA in 31 starts last year. Flaherty has good swing-and-miss ability but gets rocked when batters make contact. He was in the bottom 20th percentile in barrel rate and hard-hit rate and the Padres have a formidable lineup that rarely strikes out.  Meanwhile, Friars starter Randy Vasquez is due for major regression after posting a 5.37 xERA last year. He'll have a tough time navigating a Tigers lineup that has some dangerous hitters at the top.

It’s been a sleepy 1-for-8 start for Tatis Jr. in two disappointing San Diego losses this week, but the sight of Jack Flaherty on the mound for Detroit should stir him into action tonight. Tatis Jr. has an eye-catching 7-for-13 career record against Flaherty, including four doubles and two homers, and the Tigers starter could be vulnerable after posting a 4.64 ERA in 2025. The Padres need a spark from their talisman here, and Tatis Jr.’s speed on the basepaths is a recipe for extra-base hits. I’ll take the even odds for him to deliver.

Teoscar Hernandez has been quiet to start the year. That could change in game three, given that he’s had success against Rodriguez in the past, batting 10-for-26 with three home runs and a 1.293 OPS.

The outfielder is posting strong underlying numbers early (.348 xBA and a 74th percentile bat speed). He’s mashed lefties in his career (136 wRC+), which will play against Rodriguez, who surrendered 1.57 HR/9 to right-handed bats in 2025.

The veteran southpaw isn’t known for his punchout prowess, but he’s had success in that department against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Across a large sample size of 131 at-bats against LA’s projected hitters, he’s racked up a respectable 26% K rate.

Bryan Woo was one of Seattle's better pitchers last year, and he comes into this one with two solid spring training outings under his belt. I'm banking on pitching being the difference in this game. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryan Woo to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.. Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Cleveland Guardians with a 20% underlying K%.. Because of his large platoon split, Bryan Woo encounters a tough challenge going up against 8 batters in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in today's outing.. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bryan Woo has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 72.8% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.. Considering the 0.56 deviation between Bryan Woo's 9.55 K/9 and his 8.99 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and ought to perform worse going forward.

Connolly Early has a live arm but had a tough spring. Rhett Lowder missed a full season and was hit hard this spring. We’ll likely see the bullpens early, and Boston has the better one. 

Tatsuya Imai makes his much-awaited MLB debut, and the Angels have come out of the gate swinging. Jack Kochanowicz has command issues, but Houston's offense and the rookie pitcher are too difficult to trust.

Slade Cecconi is coming off a strong spring. He has a tall order against this Seattle lineup, but he should get enough run support as Emerson Hancock has command issues with a career 1.5 home runs per nine.