Atlanta @ Arizona Picks & Props

Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-least humidity of all games on the slate today at 23%. The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will bat from his bad side (0) today against Brandon Pfaadt... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Pfaadt's large platoon split. Ozzie Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks. Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ozzie Albies in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Gabriel Moreno will have the handedness advantage against Max Fried in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Austin Riley ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the league. Austin Riley is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Austin Riley has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 14.9% seasonal rate to 31% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Adam Duvall has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph dropping to 85.4-mph in the last week. Adam Duvall has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .259 mark is considerably lower than his .307 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Orlando Arcia's launch angle this year (10.1°) is a significant increase over his 5.5° angle last season. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Orlando Arcia's true offensive skill to be a .282, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .039 difference between that figure and his actual .243 wOBA.

Jarred Kelenic's BABIP talent is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarred Kelenic is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Jarred Kelenic will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Pfaadt has a large platoon split.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. The Atlanta Braves outfield defense grades out as the 9th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The 3rd-deepest centerfield dimensions in the league are found in Chase Field. Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-least humidity of all games on the slate today at 23%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Batting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have an edge today. Extreme flyball bats like Eugenio Suarez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Sean Murphy has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 101.4-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 95-mph. In the past 14 days, Sean Murphy's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Geraldo Perdomo will get to bat from his good side against Max Fried in today's game. The Atlanta Braves outfield defense grades out as the 9th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Geraldo Perdomo will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Marcell Ozuna has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph mark.

Jake McCarthy's BABIP talent is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. The Atlanta Braves outfield defense grades out as the 9th-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Matt Olson will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Pfaadt today... and moreover, Pfaadt has a large platoon split.

Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Eddie Rosario will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's game... and the cherry on top, Pfaadt has a large platoon split. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Eddie Rosario has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Despite posting a .238 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Eddie Rosario has suffered from bad luck given the .052 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .290.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Kevin Newman will hold the platoon advantage against Max Fried today. The Atlanta Braves outfield defense grades out as the 9th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Kevin Newman will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Christian Walker will have the handedness advantage against Max Fried today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randal Grichuk in the 77th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Randal Grichuk has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for RHB BABIP. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. Randal Grichuk will have the handedness advantage over Max Fried today.