St. Louis @ Washington Picks & Props

Nationals Park grades out as the #27 stadium in baseball for right-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Masyn Winn will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.7-mph average last year has dropped off to 86-mph. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.1°, Masyn Winn has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 20.6° figure in the past 7 days. Masyn Winn has been cold of late, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Brendan Donovan has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP. In the past two weeks, Brendan Donovan's 51.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jesse Winker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Hitting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, Jesse Winker will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Batting from the opposite that Lance Lynn throws from, CJ Abrams will have an advantage today. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Nolan Gorman is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP. Nolan Gorman pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (26.9°) is considerably higher than his 21.5° angle last year. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (38.7° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is considerably higher than his 26.9° seasonal figure.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Nick Senzel will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Nick Senzel's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 44.3% on the season to 70% over the past 7 days. When it comes to his batting average, Nick Senzel has had some very poor luck this year. His .209 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .238. Nick Senzel has displayed good plate discipline this year, checking in at the 80th percentile with a 1.88 K/BB rate.

The #3 stadium in the league for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. MacKenzie Gore will hold the platoon advantage against Alec Burleson in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alec Burleson today. Alec Burleson has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 85.3-mph over the last week. Alec Burleson has been lucky this year, posting a .332 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .020 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. James Wood is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage against Lance Lynn in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Lane Thomas ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lane Thomas is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Lane Thomas will hold that advantage today. Lane Thomas has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal EV of 91.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Luis Garcia will hold the platoon advantage over Lance Lynn in today's matchup. Luis Garcia will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against MacKenzie Gore. Last year, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 15° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 28.4°. When it comes to his batting average, Dylan Carlson has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .215 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .249.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Keibert Ruiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Keibert Ruiz will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Keibert Ruiz's launch angle from last season's 15.1° to 20.4° this year.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Hitting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Nolan Arenado will have an edge today. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, rising from 16.8% on the season to 26.7% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Paul Goldschmidt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore in today's matchup. Paul Goldschmidt has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 9.4% seasonal rate to 19.4% over the last two weeks.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Hitting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Willson Contreras will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Willson Contreras has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Jacob Young has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jacob Young will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the last week's worth of games, Jacob Young's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 10.4%.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 99°. Batting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Jose Fermin will have an edge in today's game. Jose Fermin's speed has gotten better this year. His 28.21 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.85 ft/sec now. Jose Fermin has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .238 mark is a fair amount lower than his .303 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Pedro Pages has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.