St. Louis @ Houston Picks & Props

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which often leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, Jeremy Pena will have a tough challenge in today's matchup. Jeremy Pena's 4% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) ranks in the 14th percentile since the start of last season. Jeremy Pena's 90.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced metric to evaluate power) is in the 24th percentile since the start of last season.

Pedro Pages has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Ivan Herrera has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 26.72 ft/sec to 27.39 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Sporting a .386 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Ivan Herrera is ranked in the 98th percentile for offensive skills. Ivan Herrera has compiled a .276 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Ivan Herrera grades out in the 98th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (65.4% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Nolan Gorman's 16.7% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) ranks in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jose Altuve ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Jose Altuve will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Jose Altuve has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 16.2° mark is among the highest in the league since the start of last season (87th percentile).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in the game. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Yordan Alvarez's true offensive ability to be a .403, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .039 deviation between that mark and his actual .364 wOBA.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Nolan Arenado has had some very good luck this year. His .292 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .279. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Nolan Arenado ranks in the 84th percentile with a 16.9° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in MLB.

Jake Meyers's BABIP ability is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jake Meyers is penciled in 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Among all major league parks, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Jake Meyers will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Jake Meyers is in the 99th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (21.4% rate since the start of last season).

Jon Singleton is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Jon Singleton will hold the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas today. Jon Singleton will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Jose Abreu will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.262) suggests that Jose Abreu has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .220 actual batting average. Grading out in the 76th percentile, the hardest ball Jose Abreu has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.3 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's game. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Mauricio Dubon grades out in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .293. Sporting a .294 batting average this year, Mauricio Dubon grades out in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.264) may lead us to conclude that Yainer Diaz has experienced some negative variance this year with his .249 actual batting average. Since the start of last season, Yainer Diaz's 11.9% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 80th percentile among his peers. Yainer Diaz's 94.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable standard to assess power) grades out in the 80th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Chas McCormick will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Chas McCormick has been unlucky this year, posting a .234 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .310 — a .076 discrepancy. Chas McCormick has recorded a .356 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 88th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Chas McCormick's 11.1% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) grades out in the 75th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Among all major league parks, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Paul Goldschmidt has had bad variance on his side this year. His .291 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .333. Since the start of last season, Paul Goldschmidt's 12.1% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 82nd percentile among his peers.

Matt Carpenter will have the handedness advantage against Ronel Blanco in today's game. Matt Carpenter's 11.2% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) ranks in the 80th percentile since the start of last season. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Matt Carpenter ranks in the 97th percentile with a 23.5° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in baseball. Matt Carpenter has shown impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 85th percentile with a 1.83 K/BB rate.

Brendan Donovan's batting average ability is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an edge in today's game. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brendan Donovan stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Brendan Donovan has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Alec Burleson's batting average talent is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand today. Alec Burleson may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros has just 1 same-handed RP. Alec Burleson has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Alex Bregman will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.252) may lead us to conclude that Alex Bregman has experienced some negative variance this year with his .230 actual batting average. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Alex Bregman ranks in the 87th percentile with a 17.6° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in the game.

Batting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Brandon Crawford will have the upper hand in today's game. Brandon Crawford is likely to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros has just 1 same-handed RP.

Victor Caratini has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.