Milwaukee @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Sal Frelick has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will be challenged by MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Sal Frelick will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Sal Frelick's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 84.8-mph seasonal average has decreased to 82.3-mph over the past two weeks. Compared to his seasonal figure of 7.9°, Sal Frelick has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1.4°) in the past two weeks. Over the last 7 days, Sal Frelick has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power).

Paul Goldschmidt projects as the 20th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage today. Over the last 7 days, Paul Goldschmidt's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.5% up to 20%.

Adam Wainwright will have the handedness advantage over Mark Canha in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Mark Canha in today's game. Mark Canha's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 88.1-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 85.2-mph in the past 14 days. Mark Canha's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, going from 41.1% on the season to 10% in the last 7 days. Mark Canha has been cold recently, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) in the last 14 days.

The weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Masyn Winn will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Masyn Winn's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (9.4° over the past two weeks) is considerably better than his 4° seasonal angle. Despite posting a .204 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Masyn Winn has suffered from bad luck given the .080 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .284.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.4°, Nolan Arenado has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 27° angle in the last two weeks' worth of games. Nolan Arenado has put up a .270 batting average this year, placing in the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. The weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Tommy Edman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tommy Edman's true offensive skill to be a .313, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .009 gap between that figure and his actual .304 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 80th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alec Burleson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. The weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Carlos Santana is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Out of every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals. As it relates to plate discipline, Carlos Santana's skill is quite good, posting a 1.65 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 86th percentile.