Boston @ Toronto Picks & Props

Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league. Trevor Story will hold the platoon advantage over Hyun Jin Ryu today. Trevor Story's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 41.4% to 47.9%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.297) may lead us to conclude that Trevor Story has suffered from bad luck this year with his .229 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league. Alejandro Kirk will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Alejandro Kirk has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 5.2% seasonal rate to 12% over the last two weeks. In the last week's worth of games, Alejandro Kirk's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.6-mph over the course of the season to 97-mph of late.

Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league. Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Daulton Varsho has been unlucky this year, posting a .290 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .025 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league. Kevin Kiermaier will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Kevin Kiermaier will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Kevin Kiermaier has compiled a .329 BABIP this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Reese McGuire hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Reese McGuire has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 89.1-mph. Reese McGuire's launch angle of late (23.3° in the past 7 days) is significantly higher than his 4.2° seasonal angle. Posting a .354 BABIP since the start of last season, Reese McGuire is positioned in the 98th percentile.

Cavan Biggio has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league. Cavan Biggio will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Cavan Biggio will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Cavan Biggio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 20.3% to 24.5%.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP skill is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league. Rob Refsnyder will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hyun Jin Ryu in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.350) suggests that Rob Refsnyder has experienced some negative variance this year with his .316 actual wOBA.

Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league. Luis Urias will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hyun Jin Ryu in today's matchup. Luis Urias has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 84.9-mph EV. Luis Urias's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, going from 16.1% on the season to 30% in the past 14 days.

Adam Duvall is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league. Adam Duvall will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hyun Jin Ryu today. Adam Duvall's launch angle this year (29.7°) is significantly higher than his 23.4° figure last season. Compared to his seasonal average of 29.7°, Adam Duvall has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 37.3° figure over the past 14 days.

Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Tyler Heineman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. When it comes to his batting average, Tyler Heineman has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .214 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .242. With a 1.81 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Tyler Heineman has displayed favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 89th percentile.