Cincinnati @ New York Picks & Props

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Spencer Steer ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Spencer Steer is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Spencer Steer will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against David Peterson today. Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Spencer Steer tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums. Extreme groundball batters like Ronny Mauricio usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene. Ronny Mauricio will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Ronny Mauricio has hit one of the hardest balls in the game over the last two weeks — 117.3-mph — which is a good proxy for recent form and raw power. The standard deviation of Ronny Mauricio's launch angle has been very consistent recently (36.9° in the past 7 days), which is a proxy for reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

Omar Narvaez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Omar Narvaez can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Omar Narvaez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Omar Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

D.J. Stewart has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. D.J. Stewart will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene today. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so D.J. Stewart has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. D.J. Stewart will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so T.J. Friedl stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. T.J. Friedl hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. Tyler Stephenson will have the handedness advantage against David Peterson today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

Jeff McNeil's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeff McNeil is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Jeff McNeil will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jeff McNeil can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Jeff McNeil hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Mark Vientos will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Mark Vientos has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 93.5-mph figure. Despite posting a .261 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos given the .052 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .313.

Brett Baty has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Rafael Ortega has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.