San Diego @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Willson Contreras will have the handedness advantage against Rich Hill in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game. Willson Contreras has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .253 mark is deflated compared to his .276 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jordan Walker's BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Jordan Walker will have the handedness advantage over Rich Hill today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage today. Jordan Walker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 13% on the season to 30% over the last 14 days.

The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hurlers. Miles Mikolas will hold the platoon advantage over Manny Machado today. Manny Machado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.9% — 77th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Manny Machado in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Manny Machado's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 93.4 mph to 86.4 mph.

In the last week's worth of games, Gary Sanchez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15.7% up to 30%. Gary Sanchez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 101.7-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 94.5-mph. Gary Sanchez's launch angle recently (28.8° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 17.1° seasonal figure.

Ranking in the 83rd percentile, Luis Campusano has put up a .265 batting average since the start of last season.

Garrett Cooper is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hurlers. Miles Mikolas will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Cooper today. Today, Garrett Cooper is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.6% rate (92nd percentile). Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Garrett Cooper in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Xander Bogaerts's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.9% up to 20%. Over the past week, Xander Bogaerts's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.9-mph over the course of the season to 97.8-mph of late. Xander Bogaerts's launch angle lately (17.7° in the last two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 8° seasonal mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Gorman's 15.9% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) ranks in the 95th percentile this year. Nolan Gorman's 95.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to measure power) grades out in the 93rd percentile this year.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Richie Palacios will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Trent Grisham ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Trent Grisham will have the handedness advantage against Miles Mikolas today. Trent Grisham's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (20°) is considerably higher than his 15.8° angle last season. Despite posting a .303 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Trent Grisham has had bad variance on his side given the .030 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.

Ha-seong Kim is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Ha-seong Kim hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Ha-seong Kim has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 91st percentile with a 1.52 K/BB rate. By putting up a .279 batting average this year, Ha-seong Kim is ranked in the 85th percentile.

Matt Carpenter will hold the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt Carpenter's true offensive talent to be a .327, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .045 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .282 wOBA. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Matt Carpenter ranks in the 96th percentile with a 23.2° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in the game. In terms of plate discipline, Matt Carpenter's talent is quite impressive, sporting a 1.84 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 84th percentile.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Nolan Arenado will have the handedness advantage over Rich Hill in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last two weeks, Nolan Arenado has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 24.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 12.7°. With a .350 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Nolan Arenado grades out in the 76th percentile.

Taylor Motter will hold the platoon advantage against Rich Hill in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Taylor Motter will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Taylor Motter's true offensive talent to be a .277, providing some evidence that he this year given the .071 disparity between that figure and his actual .206 wOBA.

Ben Gamel has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 6 games.