Philadelphia @ Washington Picks & Props

Jake Cave is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game. 15% of the time that Jake Cave has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Jake Cave will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Jake Cave's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (16°) is considerably worse than his 21.2° figure last season. In terms of his batting average, Jake Cave has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .230 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .214.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bryce Harper in today's matchup. Bryce Harper's launch angle this season (8.2°) is a considerable dropoff from his 11.7° mark last season.

BB&T Ballpark has the 2nd-deepest right field fences among all major league parks. CJ Abrams has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 6.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 7 days. CJ Abrams has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 79.5-mph in the past week's worth of games. When it comes to plate discipline, CJ Abrams's skill is quite poor, posting a 4.54 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 11th percentile.

Brandon Marsh is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Brandon Marsh today. From last year to this one, Brandon Marsh's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 24.9% to 18.5%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Marsh's true offensive talent to be a .326, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .034 disparity between that figure and his actual .360 wOBA.

Bryson Stott will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Bryson Stott's launch angle in recent games (-1.5° in the past week) is quite a bit worse than his 10.2° seasonal figure. Bryson Stott has been lucky this year, compiling a .339 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .018 gap.

J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup. Among all major league parks, BB&T Ballpark's CF fences are the 4th-deepest. Trevor Williams will hold the platoon advantage over J.T. Realmuto today. Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for J.T. Realmuto today. Over the last 7 days, J.T. Realmuto's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.5% down to 0%.

Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. Kyle Schwarber will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Kyle Schwarber has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 20.2% rate last season has decreased to 14.7% this year. Kyle Schwarber has put up a .192 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Posting a .198 BABIP this year, Kyle Schwarber grades out in the 1st percentile.

Alec Bohm is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today. Trevor Williams will have the handedness advantage over Alec Bohm in today's matchup. In today's game, Alec Bohm is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 40.7% rate (97th percentile). Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alec Bohm in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Alec Bohm's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.5% down to 0%.

Trevor Williams will have the handedness advantage against Trea Turner in today's game. Trea Turner hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 78th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Trea Turner will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Trea Turner's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased in recent games, going from 41.7% on the season to 18.2% in the last week's worth of games.

Trevor Williams will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Castellanos today. Nick Castellanos has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nick Castellanos in today's matchup. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Nick Castellanos has had some very good luck this year. His .339 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .326. In terms of plate discipline, Nick Castellanos's ability is quite weak, sporting a 5.16 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 8th percentile.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today. Jake Alu will have the handedness advantage over Zack Wheeler today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Jake Alu will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Lane Thomas is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today. Lane Thomas pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

Joey Meneses's batting average skill is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Joey Meneses is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Joey Meneses will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Stone Garrett in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Stone Garrett will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Over the past week, Stone Garrett's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.1% up to 22.2%.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Keibert Ruiz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 90.7-mph average to last year's 88.4-mph average.

Dominic Smith is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today. Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage over Zack Wheeler in today's game. Dominic Smith has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today. Garrett Stubbs will hold the platoon advantage against Trevor Williams in today's matchup. Garrett Stubbs's footspeed has increased this year. His 27.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.06 ft/sec now. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Garrett Stubbs ranks in the 84th percentile with a 17.7° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in the game.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today. Blake Rutherford will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Blake Rutherford will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most favorable for pitching on the schedule today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Ildemaro Vargas will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.267) implies that Ildemaro Vargas this year with his .238 actual batting average. Ildemaro Vargas has shown impressive plate discipline this year, ranking in the 89th percentile with a 1.63 K/BB rate.

Alex Call has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Johan Rojas has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.