Philadelphia @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 2nd-worst ballpark in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Joey Meneses has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week. Joey Meneses's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 90.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 85.8-mph in the last two weeks. From last year to this one, Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 19.2% to 11.4%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.252) implies that Joey Meneses has experienced some positive variance this year with his .280 actual batting average.

Nationals Park ranks as the #27 venue in the game for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Out of every team playing today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bryce Harper today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 2nd-worst ballpark in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Jake Irvin will hold the platoon advantage against Alec Bohm today. Out of every team playing today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Alec Bohm in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Alec Bohm's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.

Nationals Park ranks as the #27 venue in the game for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Out of every team playing today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals. Bryson Stott will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Despite posting a .337 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bryson Stott has experienced some positive variance given the .017 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .320.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Schwarber in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Jake Irvin in today's game. Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

When estimating his batting average skill, Trea Turner is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Trea Turner has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph to 95.2-mph in the last week's worth of games. Trea Turner has been unlucky this year, compiling a .303 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .046 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Nick Castellanos has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Nick Castellanos has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal figure of 91.6-mph.

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. In the league, Nationals Park's right field fences are the 5th-shallowest. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). CJ Abrams will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. CJ Abrams has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 6.9% seasonal rate to 13.2% over the past two weeks.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Alex Call will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Alex Call will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Alex Call has been unlucky this year, posting a .272 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .319 — a .047 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Chavis in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Michael Chavis will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez today. Michael Chavis will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Michael Chavis has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 104.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 91.2-mph.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the past week's worth of games, J.T. Realmuto's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.5%.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The switch-hitting Ildemaro Vargas will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Cristopher Sanchez. Ildemaro Vargas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Ildemaro Vargas has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .238 figure is a good deal lower than his .265 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. By putting up a 1.62 K/BB rate this year, Ildemaro Vargas has displayed favorable plate discipline, ranking in the 89th percentile.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Keibert Ruiz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Keibert Ruiz has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 6.9% seasonal rate to 15% over the past week. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.9°, Keibert Ruiz has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 19.3° figure in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Lane Thomas is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Lane Thomas will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. Lane Thomas will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Dominic Smith is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. In the league, Nationals Park's right field fences are the 5th-shallowest. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Dominic Smith will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cave in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. In the league, Nationals Park's right field fences are the 5th-shallowest. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jake Cave will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin today. Jake Cave has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 90.7-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 88.3-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Stone Garrett in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Stone Garrett is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Stone Garrett will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Stone Garrett tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Riley Adams will have the handedness advantage against Cristopher Sanchez today. Riley Adams will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Riley Adams's maximum exit velocity (an advanced stat to study power) has been 115 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 95th percentile. Riley Adams grades out in the 80th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.7% rate since the start of last season).