Seattle @ Houston Picks & Props

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. Julio Rodriguez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Logan Gilbert will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of every team today. In the last week, Yainer Diaz's 16.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 44.1%.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cade Marlowe has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Cade Marlowe has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 88-mph. In the last two weeks, Cade Marlowe has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 33.4° compared to his seasonal mark of 19.9°.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Logan Gilbert will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of every team today. Jose Altuve has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 7 days.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of every team today. Yordan Alvarez's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 95.2-mph figure last year has fallen to 92.8-mph.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 15th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert today. Kyle Tucker will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Kyle Tucker has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 10% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Chas McCormick has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage in today's game. Chas McCormick has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last season's 93.4-mph mark. Last year, Chas McCormick had an average launch angle of 18.6° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 24.1°.

Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage in today's game. Martin Maldonado has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 9.6% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last week. Despite posting a .248 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Martin Maldonado has been unlucky given the .030 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .278.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage today. In the last 14 days, Jeremy Pena's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.5%. Jeremy Pena has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .250 rate is a fair amount lower than his .273 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (36.8% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Alex Bregman's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.1%.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Teoscar Hernandez is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Teoscar Hernandez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez today. In the last week's worth of games, Teoscar Hernandez's maximum exit velocity (a favorable proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 111.5-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.348) may lead us to conclude that Teoscar Hernandez has had some very poor luck this year with his .312 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Ty France is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball. Ty France will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez today. In the past week, Ty France's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.7% up to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Mauricio Dubon has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .261 rate is deflated compared to his .284 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Cal Raleigh is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Framber Valdez. Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Cal Raleigh tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Cal Raleigh has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 13.6% seasonal rate to 20.8% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Eugenio Suarez will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball. The switch-hitting Sam Haggerty will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Framber Valdez. In notching a .321 BABIP since the start of last season, Sam Haggerty grades out in the 77th percentile.

Dylan Moore will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Dylan Moore pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Dylan Moore generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Dylan Moore has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 13.1% rate last season to 27.3% this year. Dylan Moore's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 20% to 31.8%.

Jose Caballero will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Caballero has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 3.5% seasonal rate to 9.1% in the past 7 days. Over the last week, Jose Caballero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.1-mph over the course of the season to 89.4-mph recently. Jose Caballero's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (22.7° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is a significant increase over his 16.9° seasonal angle.