Toronto @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

Bo Bichette will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. This season, there has been a decline in Bo Bichette's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.47 ft/sec last year to 26.98 ft/sec currently. Bo Bichette's 5.4° launch angle (an advanced stat to study a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in Major League Baseball: 6th percentile.

Great American Ball Park grades out as the #9 stadium in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 93.2-mph. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this year (19.7°) is quite a bit better than his 14.5° figure last year. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.7°, Daulton Varsho has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 30.3° mark in the past two weeks.

Whit Merrifield will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Whit Merrifield's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 85.2-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 81.4-mph over the past week. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Whit Merrifield's true offensive ability to be a .317, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .020 gap between that figure and his actual .337 wOBA. Checking in at the 1st percentile, the hardest ball Whit Merrifield has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 104.6 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.

Great American Ball Park grades out as the #9 stadium in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Will Benson will have the handedness advantage against Chris Bassitt today. Will Benson will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Will Benson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 102.8-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 94.3-mph. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.4°, Will Benson has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 33° mark in the past 7 days.

Great American Ball Park grades out as the #9 stadium in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the league, Great American Ball Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Cavan Biggio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 20.3% to 26.8%. In the last 14 days, Cavan Biggio's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. George Springer is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all parks, Great American Ball Park's left field dimensions are the 7th-shallowest. George Springer will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Williamson in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Tyler Stephenson will hold that advantage today. Tyler Stephenson has recorded a .330 BABIP this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile.

Davis Schneider is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all parks, Great American Ball Park's left field dimensions are the 7th-shallowest. Davis Schneider will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Williamson in today's game. Davis Schneider has been hot of late, tallying a .492 wOBA in the past 14 days.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 91st percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards the game's 11th-deepest CF fences today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 95-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 68.2-mph over the past 7 days. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (-0.8° over the last 14 days) is considerably lower than his 7.6° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Matt Chapman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Williamson in today's game. Matt Chapman's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (28.4° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 13.5° seasonal mark.

Matt McLain's BABIP skill is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Matt McLain has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Matt McLain will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Christian Encarnacion-Strand has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold that advantage today.

Alejandro Kirk's batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Alejandro Kirk will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Williamson in today's game. Alejandro Kirk has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Despite posting a .300 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alejandro Kirk has suffered from bad luck given the .039 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .339.

T.J. Friedl is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #9 stadium in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). T.J. Friedl will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup. T.J. Friedl will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.9°, T.J. Friedl has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 28.6° angle in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 5th-best hitter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP skill. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #9 stadium in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Elly De La Cruz will hold that advantage in today's game. Elly De La Cruz has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 101.7-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 94.7-mph.

Joey Votto is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #9 stadium in the majors for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the league, Great American Ball Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Joey Votto will have the handedness advantage over Chris Bassitt in today's matchup. Joey Votto will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Danny Jansen will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Williamson in today's matchup. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The standard deviation of Danny Jansen's launch angle has been very consistent recently (36.3° in the last two weeks), which is an indicator of reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Santiago Espinal will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Williamson in today's game. Santiago Espinal has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.242) implies that Santiago Espinal has experienced some negative variance this year with his .216 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 77th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Spencer Steer is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences today. Spencer Steer will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #9 ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all parks, Great American Ball Park's left field dimensions are the 7th-shallowest. Stuart Fairchild will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Stuart Fairchild's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, increasing from 41.8% on the season to 52.4% in the past 14 days.

Kevin Newman has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Henry Ramos has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.