Milwaukee @ Texas Picks & Props

Rowdy Tellez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dane Dunning today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Rowdy Tellez's true offensive talent to be a .339, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .047 disparity between that mark and his actual .292 wOBA.

The #1 park in MLB for suppressing BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Corey Seager hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 91st percentile) and and will be challenged by the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Corey Seager's true offensive talent to be a .398, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .050 gap between that mark and his actual .448 wOBA.

The #1 park in MLB for suppressing BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field. In Major League Baseball, Globe Life Field's CF fences are the 6th-deepest. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Typically, bats like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Dane Dunning. The Texas Rangers outfield defense grades out as the 5th-best out of all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Nathaniel Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Freddy Peralta today. Nathaniel Lowe will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Nathaniel Lowe has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 92.6-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Sal Frelick is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Sal Frelick will hold the platoon advantage against Dane Dunning in today's matchup.

Jonah Heim will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 13.4% to 19.1%. Jonah Heim has recorded a .273 batting average this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Mitch Garver ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Mitch Garver is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Mitch Garver will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Mitch Garver's launch angle lately (21.8° in the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 16.7° seasonal mark. With a .392 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Mitch Garver has performed in the 96th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Adolis Garcia will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Adolis Garcia's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.1%. Using Statcast data, Adolis Garcia grades out in the 88th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .364.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Willy Adames is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Willy Adames's launch angle in recent games (24.5° over the last 14 days) is a significant increase over his 18.2° seasonal figure. Willy Adames has been unlucky this year, compiling a .294 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .342 — a .048 difference.

Brice Turang will hold the platoon advantage against Dane Dunning in today's matchup. Over the last week, Brice Turang's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.6% up to 10%. Brice Turang has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.7-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal mark of 89.4-mph. Compared to his seasonal angle of 13.5°, Brice Turang has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.3°) in the last 14 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brice Turang's true offensive ability to be a .307, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .026 gap between that mark and his actual .281 wOBA.

Carlos Santana is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Carlos Santana has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 6.2% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past week. Carlos Santana has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile with a 1.8 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leody Taveras in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Leody Taveras will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Leody Taveras has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 92.6-mph in the past two weeks. When it comes to his batting average, Leody Taveras has suffered from bad luck this year. His .263 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .293.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Marcus Semien is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Marcus Semien will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Marcus Semien's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 17% to 20%. Over the last 14 days, Marcus Semien's 23.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20%.

Using Statcast data, Andruw Monasterio is in the 76th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .265. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs), Andruw Monasterio and his 20.5% rank in the 90th percentile this year. Posting a 1.74 K/BB rate this year, Andruw Monasterio has demonstrated good plate discipline, placing in the 86th percentile. By putting up a .325 BABIP this year, Andruw Monasterio grades out in the 77th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, William Contreras ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). William Contreras is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. William Contreras's launch angle in recent games (26.7° in the past week's worth of games) is a significant increase over his 3.7° seasonal mark. Grading out in the 82nd percentile, William Contreras has posted a .328 BABIP this year.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.307) may lead us to conclude that Tyrone Taylor has experienced some negative variance this year with his .235 actual wOBA.

Ezequiel Duran's BABIP ability is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Ezequiel Duran will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ezequiel Duran has posted a .280 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Ezequiel Duran has put up a .368 BABIP this year, ranking in the 95th percentile.

Travis Jankowski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Travis Jankowski will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Travis Jankowski's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 13.9% on the season to 57.1% over the past week. Posting a 1.13 K/BB rate this year, Travis Jankowski has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 97th percentile. Travis Jankowski has posted a .281 batting average this year, ranking in the 86th percentile.

Joey Wiemer has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.