New York @ St. Louis Picks & Props

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's game.

The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Miles Mikolas Francisco Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Francisco Lindor's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, going from 18.2% on the season to 6.3% in the last two weeks. By putting up a .275 BABIP this year, Francisco Lindor has performed in the 22nd percentile.

Jeff McNeil will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Jeff McNeil's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 86.3-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 83.7-mph over the last 14 days. Compared to his seasonal mark of 12.9°, Jeff McNeil has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0.6°) in the past 14 days. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 16.7% to 11.5%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 14th-best batter in the league. Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Pete Alonso has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 15% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks. Pete Alonso has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 105.9-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal figure of 94.5-mph.

Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Brandon Nimmo in today's matchup. In the last 14 days, Brandon Nimmo's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 91.9 mph to 87.1 mph.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Paul Goldschmidt ranks as the 17th-best batter in MLB. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Paul Goldschmidt will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Over the last week, Paul Goldschmidt's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.9% up to 20%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Tommy Edman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Tommy Edman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Tommy Edman has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 5.1% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Tyler O'Neill hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Tyler O'Neill will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Willson Contreras will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.282) provides evidence that Willson Contreras has had some very poor luck this year with his .259 actual batting average.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. D.J. Stewart will hold the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas in today's matchup. Over the last week, D.J. Stewart's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.7% up to 33.3%. D.J. Stewart has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 93.8-mph over the last two weeks. In the last 14 days, D.J. Stewart has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 28.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 20.4°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 88°. Among every team playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Mets. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nolan Arenado's launch angle lately (10.2° in the past 7 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 17.2° seasonal mark. Ranking in the 83rd percentile, Nolan Arenado has put up a .358 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Rafael Ortega will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas today. Posting a 1.81 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Rafael Ortega has demonstrated good plate discipline, checking in at the 89th percentile.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Andrew Knizner will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Andrew Knizner has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.7-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph mark. Sporting a .346 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Andrew Knizner has performed in the 81st percentile. Andrew Knizner has put up a .268 batting average this year, ranking in the 79th percentile.

Daniel Vogelbach is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Daniel Vogelbach will hold the platoon advantage over Miles Mikolas in today's matchup. Daniel Vogelbach hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Daniel Vogelbach has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 8.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past week.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 88°. The switch-hitting Jonathan Arauz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Miles Mikolas. In the past week's worth of games, Jonathan Arauz has displayed impressive power, recording a an 18.2% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power). Over the past 14 days, Jonathan Arauz has posted a 26° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Danny Mendick grades out in the 87th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (19% rate since the start of last season). The standard deviation of Danny Mendick's launch angle since the start of last season (25.4°) is in the 85th percentile. A low figure like this tends to lead to a higher BABIP. Sporting a .260 batting average since the start of last season, Danny Mendick is positioned in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 78th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Alec Burleson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kodai Senga today. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Alec Burleson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report the 3rd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°. Richie Palacios will hold the platoon advantage over Kodai Senga in today's matchup. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Richie Palacios has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Richie Palacios will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Omar Narvaez has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Luken Baker has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.