Philadelphia @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the 2nd-worst park in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate today at 38%. Michael Lorenzen will have the handedness advantage against Joey Meneses in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Over the last week, Joey Meneses's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the 2nd-worst park in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate today at 38%. Joan Adon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alec Bohm in today's game. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alec Bohm in today's matchup. Over the past two weeks, Alec Bohm's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 90.4 mph to 87.8 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Schwarber in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Joan Adon today. Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle lately (48° in the past week) is considerably higher than his 18.2° seasonal mark.

The #2 ballpark in the game for suppressing base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate today at 38%. Bryce Harper will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

The #2 ballpark in the game for suppressing base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate today at 38%. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Nick Castellanos's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Nick Castellanos has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. In the past two weeks, Nick Castellanos's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.5-mph over the course of the season to 97.9-mph recently. Nick Castellanos's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, going from 47.5% on the season to 73.3% over the last week.

Trea Turner is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the 2nd-worst park in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate today at 38%. Joan Adon will have the handedness advantage against Trea Turner today. Trea Turner will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Keibert Ruiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Keibert Ruiz will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Keibert Ruiz's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 44.2% on the season to 52.6% in the past two weeks. In the last week's worth of games, Keibert Ruiz has demonstrated exceptional bat control judging by THE BAT X Spray Score, which measures a batter's skill in hitting the ball to all fields.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Bryson Stott is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. In the league, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Bryson Stott will hold the platoon advantage over Joan Adon in today's matchup. Bryson Stott has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.2-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. J.T. Realmuto has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11.7% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last 7 days. In the past week's worth of games, J.T. Realmuto's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94-mph over the course of the season to 102-mph of late. J.T. Realmuto's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 43.6% on the season to 66.7% over the last 7 days.

Dominic Smith is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. In the league, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Dominic Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael Lorenzen today. Dominic Smith will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Dominic Smith's launch angle in recent games (25° over the past week) is a considerable increase over his 10.9° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Lane Thomas is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Lane Thomas will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.7°, Lane Thomas has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 35.5° mark over the past week.

Jake Cave's BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). In the league, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Jake Cave will have the handedness advantage over Joan Adon in today's game. Jake Cave's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 18.1% on the season to 44.4% over the last 7 days.

In the league, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Ildemaro Vargas will hold that advantage today. Ildemaro Vargas has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 92-mph. In the past week's worth of games, Ildemaro Vargas's 52.9% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 40.6%. A consistent launch angle is a proxy for good hitting, and Ildemaro Vargas has been very consistent with his of late, posting a 33.4° launch angle standard deviation in the past two weeks' worth of games.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Alex Call will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Alex Call has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .195 figure is quite a bit lower than his .215 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Stone Garrett's BABIP talent is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Stone Garrett will hold that advantage today. In the last week's worth of games, Stone Garrett's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.8% up to 20%. Stone Garrett has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 101.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal EV of 93.5-mph. Stone Garrett's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, rising from 48.6% on the season to 64.7% over the past two weeks.