New York @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Long-balls are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all stadiums. Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. In the past two weeks, Tommy Edman's 29.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the league. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Pete Alonso will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Thompson in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 8th-worst among all the teams playing today.

Nolan Arenado's BABIP ability is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. Nolan Arenado's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 92-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 87.8-mph in the last 7 days. The standard deviation of Nolan Arenado's launch angle has been very inconsistent in recent games (20.2° in the last two weeks), which is a measure of poor bat control and not seeing the ball well.

Zack Thompson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Nimmo today. Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Brandon Nimmo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Brandon Nimmo's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 91.9-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 88.1-mph over the last 14 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Zack Thompson. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 8th-worst among all the teams playing today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Masyn Winn will have the handedness advantage over Joey Lucchesi today. Masyn Winn will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Jeff McNeil hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 8th-worst among all the teams playing today. Over the past 14 days, Jeff McNeil's 25.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 11.5%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Paul Goldschmidt ranks as the 16th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Paul Goldschmidt will have the handedness advantage against Joey Lucchesi in today's matchup. Paul Goldschmidt will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Tim Locastro has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Tim Locastro will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Thompson today. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 8th-worst among all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Francisco Alvarez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Francisco Alvarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Thompson in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 8th-worst among all the teams playing today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Willson Contreras will have the handedness advantage against Joey Lucchesi in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Tyler O'Neill will hold the platoon advantage over Joey Lucchesi today. Tyler O'Neill hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Jordan Walker's BABIP skill is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Jordan Walker will have the handedness advantage over Joey Lucchesi today. Jordan Walker will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Danny Mendick will have the handedness advantage over Zack Thompson in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 8th-worst among all the teams playing today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 82°. Jose Fermin will have the handedness advantage against Joey Lucchesi today. Jose Fermin will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Taylor Motter will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Lucchesi in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Taylor Motter will hold that advantage in today's game.

DJ Stewart has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.